全球甲烷控排行动逻辑、议题博弈与中国对策  

Action logic and agenda game of global methane emission control and China’s countermeasures

作　　者：张博 郭金玲 仲冰 高俊莲[2] 张国生[3] 刘合 ZHANG Bo;GUO Jinling;ZHONG Bing;GAO Junlian;ZHANG Guosheng;LIU He(School of Management,Xiamen University,Xiamen 361005,China;School of Management,China University of Mining and Technology(Beijing),Beijing 100083,China;Research Institute of Petroleum Exploration and Development,PetroChina,Beijing 100083,China;State Key Laboratory of Continental Shale Oil,Daqing 163712,China)

机构地区：[1]厦门大学管理学院,厦门361005 [2]中国矿业大学(北京)管理学院,北京100083 [3]中国石油勘探开发研究院,北京100083 [4]多资源协同陆相页岩油绿色开采全国重点实验室,大庆163712

出　　处：《中国科学院院刊》2024年第12期2037-2047,共11页Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(72088101、72374175);中国工程院战略研究与咨询项目(2023-XZ-44)。

摘　　要：管控甲烷排放缘起于全球应对气候变化,近年来已演变为国际气候谈判中的焦点议题。当前,全球气候治理议程中的甲烷控排议题基本成型,但从科学共识转向政治共识的过程中,议题内容与博弈焦点持续演化。开展全球性行动需要解决责任分配、国际规则、气候投融资、风险预防等关键问题,并确保有足够的基础能力作为保障。全球甲烷控排行动将对我国产生多方面影响,包括:甲烷排放监测透明化加剧国际减排博弈,要求我国承担减排责任的国际压力持续增强,我国高甲烷排放产品的对外贸易将受到挤压,倒逼我国加快甲烷治理体系与治理能力建设。我国应及时因应国内外形势变化,夯实国内甲烷控排政策与行动基础,提高全球性议题研究与设置能力,加快甲烷减排及资源化利用市场化,提升甲烷控排议题的国际话语权,进而深度参与全球甲烷排放治理。Originated from the global response to climate change,methane emission control has evolved into a focus of international climate negotiations in recent years.At present,the agenda for controlling methane emission in global climate governance is basically taking shape,but in the process of shifting from scientific consensus to political consensus,the content of the topic and the focus of the game continue to evolve.To carry out global action,it is necessary to address issues such as the allocation of responsibilities,international rules,climate investment and financing,and risk prevention,as well as the basic capacity guarantees behind them.The global methane emission control action will have a multifaceted impact on China.The transparency of global methane emission monitoring will intensify the emission reduction game of all parties,the international pressure requiring China to assume the responsibility of emission reduction will continue to increase,the foreign trade of China’s high-methane emission products will be restricted,and China will be forced to accelerate the construction of methane governance system and governance capacity.In response to changes in the domestic and international situation,it is necessary to consolidate the foundation of domestic methane emission control policies and actions,improve the ability to research and set global issues,accelerate methane emission reduction and resource utilization marketization,enhance the international discourse on methane emission control issues,and deeply involve in global methane emission control.

关 键 词：甲烷 控排 气候谈判 博弈 全球气候治理 中国 

分 类 号：X321[环境科学与工程—环境工程] P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]