基于MaxEnt模型的黄花刺茄在北方农牧交错带潜在适生区分析  

Analysis of Potential Geographic Distribution of Solanum rostratum Based on Optimized MaxEnt Model in Agro-pastoral Ecotone of Northern China

作　　者：郑梦月 宋彦涛 李彩琳 那木汗 乌云娜 马晶 于跃 ZHENG Meng-yue;SONG Yan-tao;LI Cai-lin;NA Mu-han;WU Yun-na;MA Jing;YU Yue(College of Environmental and Resources,Dalian Minzu University,Dalian,Liaoning Province 116000,China;Bairin Right Banner Forestry and Grassland Bureau,Bairin Right Banner,Inner Mongolia 025150,China)

机构地区：[1]大连民族大学环境与资源学院,辽宁大连116000 [2]巴林右旗林业和草原局,内蒙古巴林右旗025150

出　　处：《草地学报》2024年第12期3905-3914,共10页Acta Agrestia Sinica

基　　金：国家民委中青年英才培养计划项目(2022);辽宁省科技计划联合计划应用基础研究项目(2023 JH2/101700027);中央高校基本科研业务费(04442024091)资助。

摘　　要：黄花刺茄(Solanum rostratum)作为危害性极强的外来入侵物种,明确影响其在中国北方农牧交错带分布的主要环境因子以及潜在适生区对合理防治和管控具有重要意义。本研究以中国北方农牧交错带为研究区域,基于R语言ENMeval数据包优化的最大熵模型(MaxEnt)和地理信息系统(ArcGIS),结合黄花刺茄在中国北方农牧交错带的分布数据及9个环境因子,分析黄花刺茄在中国北方农牧交错带的潜在适生区。模型预测结果显示,当前模拟的潜在分布区与实际分布基本吻合,受试者工作特征曲线下面积(AUC值)为0.868,预测结果较好。结果表明,最湿季平均温、干旱度指数、降雨量变异系数、海拔是影响黄花刺茄分布的主要环境变量;黄花刺茄在中国北方农牧交错带的高适生区面积约占6.82×10^(4) km^(2),主要分布在中国北方农牧交错带的东部地区。As a highly hazardous invasive alien species,it is important to identify the dominant environmental factors and potential habitat areas that affect the Solanum rostratum in the agro-pastoral ecotone of northern China in order to rationally control and prevent it.In this study,based on the Maximum Entropy Model(MaxEnt)optimized by the R language ENMeval data package and ArcGIS,combined with the distribution data of S.rostratum and 9 environmental factors in agro-pastoral ecotone of northern China,we predicted the potential suitable growth area of S.rostratum in the agro-pastoral ecotone of northern China.According to the results of the model,the potential distribution area of the current simulation was basically consistent with the actual distribution.The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve(AUC value)was 0.868,and the prediction result was better.The results showed that the mean temperature of wettest quarter,aridity Index,precipitation variation coefficient and altitude were the main environmental variables affecting the potential distribution of S.rostratum.The highly suitable area of S.rostratum in the agro-pastoral ecotone of northern China accounted for about 6.82×10^(4) km^(2),which was mainly distributed in the eastern part of the agro-pastoral ecotone of northern China.

关 键 词：黄花刺茄 北方农牧交错带 适生区 最大熵模型 

分 类 号：S451[农业科学—植物保护]