重大突发公共卫生事件对中国民航运输量的影响度分析  

Analysis of the influence degree of major public health emergencies oncivil aviation transportation volume in China

作　　者：梁志星 马昕洁 曹捷 LIANG Zhixing;MA Xinjie;CAO Jie(Teaching Affairs Management Department,CAUC,Tianjin 300300,China;College of Transportation Science and Engineering,CAUC,Tianjin 300300,China;Marketing Department,Dalian International Airport Group Co.,Ltd.,Dalian 116033,Liaoning,China)

机构地区：[1]中国民航大学教务处,天津300300 [2]中国民航大学交通科学与工程学院,天津300300 [3]大连国际机场集团有限公司市场营销部,辽宁大连116033

出　　处：《中国民航大学学报》2024年第6期46-51,共6页Journal of Civil Aviation University of China

基　　金：中国交通教育研究2022—2024年度教育科学研究重点课题(JT2022ZD044)。

摘　　要：为了科学测量重大突发公共卫生事件对中国民航运输量的影响程度,预测未来中国民航运输量的发展趋势,本文引入重大突发公共卫生事件影响值和影响度的概念,对北京首都国际机场、大连周水子国际机场和中国民航2018—2019年旅客吞吐量、货邮吞吐量等指标进行定量分析,并利用三次指数平滑方法计算出2020年和2021年的预测值,将预测值与实际值之间的差值设定为影响值,将当月影响值和前一个月影响值的比值定义为影响度。结果显示,突发公共卫生事件对民航运输量的影响度约为1.0,2022—2025年中国民航运输量将实现稳步恢复。影响度相关概念和方法的提出为突发事件背景下民航运输量的预测提供了新思路。In order to scientifically measure the influence level of major public health emergencies on China′s civil aviation transportation volume and predict the future development trend of China′s civil aviation transportation volume,the concepts of influence value and influence degree of major public health emergencies were introduced to quantitatively analyze the index such as passenger throughput and cargo throughput,etc.of Beijing Capital International Airport,Dalian Zhoushuizi International Airport,and China′s civil aviation from 2018 to 2019.The cubic exponential smoothing method was used to calculate the predicted values for 2020 and 2021.The difference between the predicted values and the actual values was set as the influence value,and the ratio of the influence value of the current month to the influence value of the previous month was defined as the influence degree.The results showed that the influence degree of public health emergencies on civil aviation transportation volume was about 1.0.From 2022 to 2025,civil aviation transportation volume in China will steadily recover.The introduction of the concept and method of influence degree provides new ideas for predicting the civil aviation transportation volume in the context of emergencies.

关 键 词：重大突发公共卫生事件 民航运输量 影响度 三次指数平滑法 预测 

分 类 号：U8[交通运输工程]