后巴希尔时代苏丹政治转型及挑战(2019年4月~2022年12月)  

Post-Bashir Era:Sudan’s Political Transformation Process and Challenges(April 2019 to December 2022)

作　　者：杨玉鑫 Yang Yuxin

机构地区：[1]浙江师范大学非洲研究院

出　　处：《阿拉伯研究论丛》2023年第1期247-265,共19页Arab Studies

摘　　要：巴希尔政权被推翻是苏丹国内矛盾长期积累和爆发的结果,其中经济困难和政局动荡是最主要原因。后巴希尔时代,苏丹政治开始转型,但军方为自身利益和党派斗争拒绝退出政坛,导致政治矛盾加剧,使所谓“军民共治”模式中途夭折,民主化进程受挫。在苏丹军队政变过程中,外部大国扮演了十分重要的角色。军队接管政权以后,苏丹政局持续动荡,经济形势严重恶化,传统社会矛盾不断加深,为新冲突埋下隐患。未来苏丹国内如果想实现政治稳定、社会经济发展,最主要的是各派政治势力包括军方之间要达成共识,形成实权高效的文官政府。其次是迅速稳定经济,降低通货膨胀率,解决基本民生问题,恢复民众对政府的信心。最后是整治腐败问题,当前的腐败问题加剧了经济危机,如果得不到改善,政府将彻底失去民心。后巴希尔时代苏丹政治转型仍然是困难重重,未来发展方向依旧不明朗,充满了不确定性。The overthrow of the Bashir regime was the result of long-term accumulation and outbreak of domestic conflicts,among which economic difficulties and political turmoil were the main reasons.In the post-Bashir era,Sudanese politics began to transform,but the military refused to withdraw from the political arena for its own interests and partisan struggles,which led to intensified political conflicts,aborted the so-called“military-civilian co-governance”model,and frustrated the democratization process.In the process of the Sudanese military coup,the intervention of external powers played a very important role.After the army took over the regime,Sudan’s political situation continued to be turbulent,the economic situation deteriorated severely,and traditional social conflicts continued to deepen,laying hidden dangers for new conflicts.If Sudan wants to achieve political stability and social and economic development in the future,the most important thing is to reach a consensus among various political forces,including the military,to form a civilian government with real power and efficiency.The second is to quickly stabilize the economy,reduce inflation,solve basic livelihood problems,and restore people’s confidence in the government.The last is to rectify the corruption problem.The current corruption problem has exacerbated the economic crisis.If it is not improved,it will completely lose popular support.Sudan’s political transition in the post-Bashir era is still full of difficulties,and the future direction of development is still unclear and full of uncertainties.

关 键 词：苏丹 政变 军方 文官政府 巴希尔 

分 类 号：D741.2[政治法律—政治学]