A robust method for evaluating the potentials of 15-minute cities:Implications for sustainable urban futures  

作　　者：Jianying Wang Mei-Po Kwan Gezhi Xiu Fangxu Deng 

机构地区：[1]Institute of Space and Earth Information Science,Fok Ying Tung Remote Sensing Science Building,The Chinese University of Hong Kong,Hong Kong SAR 999077,China [2]Department of Geography and Resource Management,Wong Foo Yuan Building,The Chinese University of Hong Kong,Hong Kong SAR 999077,China [3]Institute of Future Cities,Wong Foo Yuan Building,The Chinese University of Hong Kong,Hong Kong SAR 999077,China [4]Institute of Remote Sensing and GIS,Peking University,Beijing 100871,China

出　　处：《Geography and Sustainability》2024年第4期597-606,共10页地理学与可持续性（英文）

基　　金：supported by grants from the Hong Kong Research Grants Council(General Research Fund Grants No.14605920,14611621,14606922,14603724;Collaborative Research Fund Grant No.C4023-20GF;Research Matching Grants No.8601219,8601242,3110156);a grant from the Research Committee on Research Sustainability of Major Research Grants Council Funding Schemes(Grant No.3133235)of the Chinese University of Hong Kong;funding from the Improvement on Competitiveness in Hiring New Faculties Funding Scheme of The Chinese University of Hong Kong.

摘　　要：The‘15-minute city’(15minC)concept,which aspires to bring essential services within reach via a 15-minute walk for all residents,represents a pivotal paradigm shift in sustainable urban development.However,the achievability of this concept for different cities varies considerably across diverse population distributions,urban contexts,and development priorities.In this study,we propose a robust method for evaluating a city’s 15minC potential-a city’s capability to achieve widespread 15-minute accessibility while maintaining an optimal balance between resource efficiency and resident accessibility.We employ the Location Set Covering Problem optimization model to analyze the resources required to achieve full coverage of 15-minute accessibility and the knee point detection algorithm to assess a city’s 15minC potential.Across 23 major Chinese cities,our method exhibits a sharp sensitivity to delineate distinct 15minC potentials.It reveals that cities’current 15minC development level doesn’t align with their inherent potential uniformly.Key determinants include how well current facility locations match population centers and the population density in remote areas.Further,reducing facility constructions by twothirds has only a marginal impact on accessibility,emphasizing the need for tailored,data-driven planning in effective and sustainable urban development based on the distinct potentials of cities.Our approach prioritizes resource efficiency,minimizing the inefficient use of facilities that serve only a small portion of residents while maximizing the benefits of the 15minC and therefore has significant implications for a sustainable urban future.

关 键 词：15-Minute city Development potential SUSTAINABILITY Efficiency 

分 类 号：TU984.113[建筑科学—城市规划与设计]