2023年7月11—17日昌都市连续性强降雨过程成因及预报偏差分析  

An analysis of the causes and forecast bias of a continuous heavy rainfall process in Chamdo

作　　者：次珍 西绕卓玛 白玛曲西 CI Zhen;XI Raozhuoma;BAI Maquxi(Chamdo Meteorological Observatory of Tibet,Changdu 854000,China)

机构地区：[1]西藏昌都市气象局,西藏昌都854000

出　　处：《中国高新科技》2024年第22期51-53,共3页

基　　金：西藏自治区自然科学基金项目“川藏铁路昌都段气象服务指标建立及应用研究”(XZ202201ZR0009G)。

摘　　要：2023年7月11—17日,昌都全市出现大范围连续性强降雨天气,导致察雅、芒康、丁青、左贡、八宿、类乌齐等地出现泥石流、山洪、滑坡、路面塌方等地质灾害。文章利用高空和地面常规观测资料,以及数值模式、风廓线雷达数据对此次连续性强降雨进行分析,结果表明,伊朗高压和西太平洋副热带高压之间形成的低涡切变线是造成此次连续性强降雨的主要影响系统,西藏北侧、青海和南侧云南附近(22°~27° N,94°~97° E)建立高压单体对预报连续性强降雨过程有一定的指示意义。From July 11 to 17,2023,the city experienced widespread and continuous heavy rainfall,leading to geological disasters such as mudslides,flash floods,landslides,and road collapses in areas such as Chayag,Markam,Dingqen,Zo’gang,Baxoi,and Riwoqe.In this paper,the continuous heavy rainfall is analyzed by using the conventional observation data at high altitude and on the ground,as well as the numerical model and wind profile radar data.The results show that the vortex shear line formed between the Iranian high and the western Pacific subtropical high is the main influence system causing the continuous heavy rainfall.The establishment of high pressure cells near Qinghai in the north of Tibet and Yunnan in the south(22°-27°N,94°-97°E)has certain indication significance for predicting the continuous heavy rainfall process.

关 键 词：连续性强降雨 低涡切变线 高压 数值模式 预报偏差分析 

分 类 号：P458[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]