重大突发事件下应急管理部门政府回应性的组态归因研究  

Configuration Attribution of Government Responsiveness from Emergency Management Departments during Major Emergencies

作　　者：苏欣宇 张海涛[1,2,3] 张鑫蕊 刘伟利 Su Xinyu;Zhang Haitao;Zhang Xinrui;Liu Weili(School of Business and Management,Jilin University,Changchun 130012;Information Resource Research Center,Jilin University,Changchun 130012;Institute of National Development and Security Studies,Jilin University,Changchun 130012;School of Management,Northeastern University at Qinhuangdao,Qinhuangdao 066004)

机构地区：[1]吉林大学商学与管理学院,长春130012 [2]吉林大学信息资源研究中心,长春130012 [3]吉林大学国家发展与安全研究院,长春130012 [4]东北大学秦皇岛分校管理学院,秦皇岛066004

出　　处：《情报学报》2024年第11期1297-1309,共13页Journal of the China Society for Scientific and Technical Information

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“总体国家安全观下重大突发事件的智能决策情报体系研究”(20&ZD125)。

摘　　要：国际时局动荡不安,致使国家面临众多不可预见的重大突发事件。为确保国家能够迅速、有效地应对危机并保护公民的生命和财产安全,政府亟须提升应急管理能力。针对当前各省份应急管理部门回应性存在差异以及政府职能单因子分析不全面的问题,本文选取31个省级行政区的应急管理部门网站获取公开数据,采用模糊集定性比较分析(fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis,fsQCA)方法对政府回应性水平进行多要素归因分析;在实验数据基础上,结合智能体建模技术,得出模拟仿真结果。研究结果表明,应急管理部门的高政府回应可划分为“数财兼备型”“以源促策型”和“运筹帷幄型”3种类型,而低政府回应则可分为“灾害影响型”和“时紧任重型”2种类型。基于政府-民众意见模型的研究结果显示,在主要考虑回应时间的情况下,当政府处理时间与民众等待时间存在偏差时,两者的交叉周期点相差近44天,为政府应急管理部门有效回应民众提供了参考依据。The international situation is turbulent,causing countries to face many unforeseen emergencies.To ensure that countries can respond quickly and effectively to crises and protect the lives and property of their citizens,governments urgently need to improve their emergency management capabilities.In view of the current differences in the responsiveness of emergency management departments in different provinces and the incompleteness of single-factor analyses of government functions,the websites of emergency management departments in 31 provincial administrative regions were selected for this study to obtain public data.The fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis(fsQCA)was used to conduct a multifactor attribution analysis of government responsiveness.Simulation results were obtained through experimental data and agent modeling technology.The study findings showed that the strong government response of emergency management departments could be divided into three types─“both financial and quantity,”“sourcing-oriented,”and“strategizing”─while the poor government response could be divided into two types─“disaster impact”and“time tight responsibility.”On the basis of the government-public opinion model,when the response time is mainly considered and a deviation between government processing time and public waiting time is observed,the cross-cycle point difference between the two is nearly 44 days,which provides a reference for government emergency management departments to respond effectively to the public.

关 键 词：重大突发事件 政府回应性 模糊集定性比较分析 智能体建模 

分 类 号：D63[政治法律—政治学]