冷涡背景下山东极端雷暴大风的天气分型和预报着眼点  

Weather Classification and Forecast Focuses of Extreme Thunderstorms and Gales on Background of Cold Votex in Shandong

作　　者：张芹 ZHANG Qin(Weifang Meteorological Bureau of Shandong Province,Weifang 261011)

机构地区：[1]山东省潍坊市气象局,潍坊261011

出　　处：《气象科技》2024年第6期816-829,共14页Meteorological Science and Technology

基　　金：山东省气象局科研项目(2023sdqxz10、2018sdqxm16、2021sdqxm04);潍坊市气象局科研项目(2021wfqxkt07)资助。

摘　　要：利用2013—2021年间山东省气象观测站的逐时极大风速、MICAPS资料、雷达风廓线、华北雷达拼图、闪电定位以及NCEP再分析等资料,将冷涡背景下山东极端雷暴大风的天气类型分为低槽型、西北气流型、横槽型、高空冷涡型、副高边缘型和暖切变线型6大类,并对冷涡背景下山东产生极端雷暴大风的预报着眼点进行分析。结果表明:①产生极端雷暴大风的雷暴形态有弓形、多单体风暴、飑线、超级单体和普通雷暴单体,其中以弓形和多单体风暴居多。②弓形回波的中部前沿出现极端雷暴大风概率较大。多单体风暴移向的右前方、飑线前沿和超级单体移动方向的右前方也是出现极端雷暴大风的关键区。③极端雷暴大风发生时,回波顶高一般在15 km以上,且极端雷暴大风出现在回波顶高大值中心移动方向的前或右前侧。④当地面上出现2.5 hPa以上的小时增压、相对于周边环境大气较低的冷池中心、对流层中下层环境风场明显增强时,就要结合风暴移动方向,提前研判风暴移动方向的前方,尤其是右前方,是否有发生极端强雷暴大风的可能。In order to gain a deeper understanding of the statistical characteristics and forecasting focuses of extreme thunderstorm gusts with a magnitude of 11 or above that occur in Shandong under the background of cold vortices and cause disasters,the paper analyses the large-scale circulation background,radar characteristics,vertical wind shear,and parameter features related to the intensity potential and momentum downward transmission of extreme thunderstorm winds.This is done by analysing the maximum hourly wind speed of automatic precipitation data,MICAPS data,radar wind profile,North China radar,lightning positioning data and NCEP reanalysis data during 2013-2021,through statistical methods,weather diagnosis,and synthetic analysis,etc.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)The extreme thunderstorm gale events above grade 11 are divided into 6 categories:low trough type,northwest airflow type,transverse trough type,upper cold vortex type,subtropical high marginal type and warm shear type.(2)There are five types of thunderstorms that produce extreme thunderstorm wind:bow echo,multi-cell storm,squall line,supercell and ordinary thunderstorm,among which bow echo and multi-cell storm are the main forms,accounting for 63%of the total number of occurrences.Squall lines and supercells are also forms of extreme thunderstorm winds,accounting for 17%and 13%respectively.(3)The middle front of the bow echo is the region with a high probability of extreme thunderstorm and gale.The right front of the moving direction of the multi-cell storm,the front of the squall line and the right front of the moving direction of the supercell are also the key areas of the extreme thunderstorm and gale.(4)When the extreme thunderstorm and gale occur,the top height of the echo is usually above 15 km.The extreme thunderstorm gale appears in the front or right front of the moving direction of the high centre of the Echo Top.(5)When the strong hourly pressure change over 2.5 hPa appears on the ground,the cold pool centre is lower than the surround

关 键 词：天气类型 冷涡 雷暴形态 回波顶高 

分 类 号：P458[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]