中国台风灾害直接经济损失的主导影响因子评估与识别  

Identification of Dominant Impact Factors of Typhoon Disaster Economic Losses in China

作　　者：徐金勤 申丹娜[2] 王皘 孟明明 XU Jinqin;SHEN Danna;WANG Qian;MENG Mingming(Guangdong Meteorological Service Center,Guangzhou 510640;CMA Institute for Development and Programme Design,Beijing 100081;National Meteorological Center,Beijing 100081;School of Economics and Management,Beijing Forestry University,Beijing 100083)

机构地区：[1]广东省气象服务中心,广州510640 [2]中国气象局气象发展与规划院,北京100081 [3]国家气象中心,北京100081 [4]北京林业大学经济管理学院,北京100083

出　　处：《气象科技》2024年第6期869-878,共10页Meteorological Science and Technology

基　　金：中国气象局气象发展与规划院重点研究项目(ZDXM2023003)资助。

摘　　要：基于2004—2021年125个中国台风灾情资料以及地面气象站风雨观测数据和社会经济统计数据,综合考虑致灾因子、承灾体和防灾减灾能力构建台风灾害直接经济损失评估模型,并在此基础上定量化研究影响中国台风灾害直接经济损失的主导因子。结果表明:在2004—2021年期间,中国台风定基直接经济损失和台风风雨强度均呈现下降趋势。以2012年(台风路径集合预报实时订正技术启用年)为界,台风大风指数是2004—2011年期间对台风灾害经济损失贡献量最大的影响因子,但在2012年之后,却是贡献量最小的因子;台风降雨指数、地区GDP(Gross Domestic Product)总和、台风强度预报误差和排水管道密度因子对台风灾害经济损失的贡献在2012年之后均明显增加,并且台风强度预报误差的降低和排水管道密度的显著增加是2012—2021年期间台风灾害经济损失下降的主导要素。本研究发现我国台风灾害经济损失的主导影响因子在不同研究时段内存在差异,提高台风强度预报水平和改善排水设施等防灾减灾能力可有效降低台风灾害经济损失。Based on comprehensive data spanning from 2004 to 2021,encompassing 125 typhoon disaster events within China,and in conjunction with wind and rain observation data collected from ground meteorological stations as well as synchronous social and economic statistical data,this study develops a robust model for assessing the direct economic losses of typhoon disasters.This model takes into account causative factors,receptor characteristics,and disaster prevention and reduction capacity.On the basis of this model,we design a quantitative analysis method to conduct an in-depth exploration and quantitative analysis of the dominant factors influencing the change in direct economic losses caused by typhoon disasters in China.The research findings indicate that during the observation period from 2004 to 2021,overall direct economic losses resulting from typhoon disasters in China exhibit a significant year-on-year decreasing trend.Simultaneously,there are discernible signs of weakening in the wind and rain intensity associated with these typhoons in China.Taking 2012 as the cut-off point(the year when real-time correction technology for ensemble forecast of typhoon paths is officially put into use),our study finds that prior to this year,the typhoon wind index is identified as the most significant factor contributing to economic losses from these disasters during the observation period from 2004 to 2021;however,its influence decreases significantly after 2012,becoming the smallest contributing factor to the direct economic losses of typhoon disasters during the observation period from 2012 to 2021.Compared with the observation period from 2004 to 2011,there is a notable increase in contributions to the direct economic losses of typhoon disasters in China from factors related to typhoons after 2012,such as the typhoon rain index,regional GDP,typhoon intensity forecast error,and drainage pipe density factor.Particularly noteworthy is our identification of improved accuracy in forecasting typhoon intensity along with substant

关 键 词：台风灾害 直接经济损失 评估模型 主导影响因子 

分 类 号：P49[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]