石化装置运行平稳性评估模型及安全管理对策  

EVALUATION MODEL OF STABILITY OF PETROCHEMICAL FACILITIES OPERATION AND SAFETY MANAGEMENT COUNTERMEA-SURES

作　　者：王伟[1] Wang Wei(Chemical Engineering Supervision and Management Center,Daqing Refining and Chemical Co.,Ltd.,Petroleum&Chemical Corporation,Daqing,Heilongjiang,163000)

机构地区：[1]中国石油大庆炼化公司化工有限公司监督管理中心,黑龙江大庆163000

出　　处：《石油化工安全环保技术》2024年第6期9-12,I0001,共5页Petrochemical Safety and Environmental Protection Technology

摘　　要：为了解析并评估石油化工设备的主要风险因素,以实现风险的源头管理和安全运营,适应高效的风险管控需求,构建了设备事故风险影响的数学模型,并采用决策试验与评估实验室技术(DEMATEL)来研究问题。从现代事故因果连锁理论的角度出发,发现人为因素、机械设备及其他风险因素均受到管理因素的显著影响。建立了基于工艺稳定性、工艺稳定性校正和非计划停车三个指标的设备稳定性模型,统计设备的运行稳定性。揭示设备在不同阶段的风险特性,可作为预警指标和安全管理业绩的标准,提升设备的安全管理效能。In order to analyze and evaluate the main risk factors of petrochemical equipment and achieve risk source management and safe operation,and to adapt to the needs of efficient risk management and control,a mathematical model of the impact of the equipment accident risk has been constructed and the Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory(DEMATEL)method has been used to study the problem.Starting from the perspective of modern causal chain theory of accidents,it is found that human factors,mechanical equipment,and other risk factors are influenced by management factors greatly.A device stability model based on the three indicators of process stability,pro-cess stability correction,and unplanned shutdown has been established to statistically evaluate the operational stability of equipment.It reveals the risk characteris-tics of equipment at different stages and can be used as warning indicators and standards for safety manage-ment performance to enhance the safety management effectiveness of equipment.

关 键 词：DEMATEL 支配性事故风险 石化装置 安全管理 装置平稳性 

分 类 号：TE65[石油与天然气工程—油气加工工程] TQ050.7[化学工程] TQ086