河南省黄河流域水资源-经济社会-生态环境协调发展评价及驱动因素分析  

Evaluation and Driving Factors of Coordinated Development of Water Resources,Economy Society and Ecological Environment in the Yellow River Basin of Henan Province

作　　者：吕铖 吕素冰[1,3] 焦天一 赵衡 王富强 邵薇薇[2] LÜCheng;LÜSu-bing;JIAO Tian-yi;ZHAO Heng;WANG Fu-qiang;SHAO Wei-wei(North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power,Zhengzhou,450046,Henan Province,China;Key Laboratory of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Water Security Ministry of Water Resources China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,Beijing,100038,China;Henan Province Key Laboratory of Water Resources Conservation and Intensive Utilization in the Yellow River Basin,Zhengzhou 450046,Henan Province,China)

机构地区：[1]华北水利水电大学,河南郑州450046 [2]中国水利水电科学研究院水利部京津冀水安全保障重点实验室,北京100038 [3]河南省黄河流域水资源节约集约重点实验室,河南郑州450046

出　　处：《中国农村水利水电》2024年第12期1-11,共11页China Rural Water and Hydropower

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(52279014,52109085);河南省重点研发与推广专项(科技攻关)(232102320257);农业重大科技专项(NK202319020506);河南省自然科学基金(242300421252);水利部京津冀水安全保障重点实验室开放研究基金(IWHR-KLWS-202310)。

摘　　要：持续的强人类活动改变了水资源、经济社会和生态环境之间的互馈关系,影响了区域可持续发展。为探究河南省黄河流域水资源-经济社会-生态环境协调发展状况,识别协调发展的驱动因素,研究基于协同学和随机森林模型改进了传统耦合协调度模型,计算了河南省黄河流域2011-2022年水资源-经济社会-生态环境的综合发展指数和耦合协调度,采用核密度估计揭示其时空演变特征,利用地理探测器模型分析协调发展的驱动因素。结果表明:研究期内各系统综合发展指数均呈不同程度的增长趋势,但存在一定的异质性,水资源、经济社会和生态环境系统分别呈现出“西高东低,南高北低”、“中心带动周边,边缘发展缓慢”、“上游优于下游,西南优于东北”的空间非均衡格局;水资源-经济社会-生态环境协调发展水平向好趋势显著,各城市间空间异质性明显,呈现出“区域齐升,南高北低,西高东低”的演化特征;自然禀赋、经济基础以及人居环境是协调发展的主要驱动因素,各因子之间关系日益紧密,交互类型呈现向“非线性增强”转化趋势。研究创新性地提出了协调发展评价的新方法,并对其科学性进行了验证,为深入剖析河南省黄河流域水资源、经济社会与生态环境的协调发展状况提供了有力工具,对于促进区域可持续发展具有一定的实践指导意义。Continuous strong human activities have changed the mutual feedback relationship between water resources,economic society and ecological environment,and affected regional sustainable development.In order to explore the coordinated development of water resources,economic society and ecological environment in the Yellow River Basin of Henan Province and identify the drivers of coordinated develop⁃ment,this study improved the traditional coupling coordination degree model based on synergetics and random forest model,and calculated the comprehensive development index and coupling coordination degree of water resources,economic society and ecological environment in the Yellow River Basin of Henan Province from 2011 to 2022.The spatial and temporal evolution characteristics are revealed by kernel densi⁃ty estimation,and the driving factors of the coordinated development are analyzed by geographic detector model.The results showed that dur⁃ing the study period,the comprehensive development index of each system showed a different degree of growth trend,but there was a certain degree of heterogeneity.The water resources,economic society and ecological environment system showed a spatial disequilibrium pattern of“high in the west,low in the east,high in the south and low in the north”,“the center leads the periphery,the edge develops slowly”,“the upstream is superior to the downstream,the southwest is superior to the northeast”.The coordinated development level of water resources,economic society and ecological environment showed a significant positive trend,and the spatial heterogeneity among cities was obvious,showing the evolution characteristics of“regional rise,high in the south and low in the north,high in the west and low in the east”.Natural endowment,economic foundation and human settlement environment are the main driving factors for coordinated development,and the rela⁃tionship between each factor is becoming increasingly close,and the interaction type shows a trend of transformation to�

关 键 词：水资源-经济社会-生态环境 协调发展 随机森林 地理探测器 河南省黄河流域 

分 类 号：TV231.4[水利工程]