人类活动对青藏高原最暖夏季极端温度的影响  

Influence of human activities on temperature extremes in the warmest summer over the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau

作　　者：尹红[1] 孙颖[1] 王东阡[1] YIN Hong;SUN Ying;WANG Dongqian(National Climate Centre,China Meteorological Administration,Beijing 100081,China)

机构地区：[1]中国气象局国家气候中心,北京100081

出　　处：《冰川冻土》2024年第6期1780-1789,共10页Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金联合基金项目(U2342228);国家自然科学基金项目(42077427,42025503);中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2022J039)资助。

摘　　要：气候变暖导致了青藏高原冰川退缩、冻土消融,对自然生态系统造成了严重的影响。近年来高原变暖持续加剧,2022年经历了1961年以来最暖的夏季,青藏高原中东部区域夏季平均最高气温(T_(max))和最低气温(T_(min))比1961—1990年分别增暖了2.37℃和2.51℃。本研究利用模式评估和重建相结合的方法,揭示人类活动对青藏高原地区极端温度事件的影响,并预估未来的变化。研究表明:人类活动排放的温室气体增加了青藏高原2022年夏季发生极端高温事件的概率,极端T_(max)事件在人类活动影响和自然因子影响下发生的概率分别为3.67%和0.012%,人类活动对2022年夏季极端T_(max)事件贡献为1.26℃(0.86~1.68℃);极端T_(min)事件在有人类活动影响下发生概率为23.5%,而在自然因子影响下没有检测到发生类似强度的事件。人类活动对2022年夏季极端T_(min)事件贡献为2.35℃(1.89~2.81℃)。CMIP6模式低估了青藏高原地区观测到的气温变化,基于归因约束方法校准了模式对观测的模拟偏差,预估显示,在共享社会经济路径中等排放情景下(SSP2-4.5)青藏高原夏季平均最高气温和最低气温未来将继续增加,未来青藏高原发生类似2022年极端高温事件风险不断增大。The warming of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau has led to glacier retreat,permafrost melting,and an increase of meteorological and derived disasters,capturing widespread attention across society.In recent years,the warming of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau has intensified further.In 2022,the summer was the warmest since 1961,with the average summer maximum temperature (T_(max)) and minimum temperature (T_(min)) in the central and eastern Qinghai-Xizang Plateau being 2.37℃ and 2.51℃ higher than that during the period of 1961—1990.The attribution technique,combining model evaluation and reconstruction,was employed to detect and analyze the anthropogenic influence on the extreme temperature events of the summer 2022 over the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau,utilizing CMIP6 model simulation data.The results indicated that greenhouse gases emissions from human activities significantly heightened the probability of maximum temperature extreme events during the summer2022 over the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau.The probability of extreme T_(max) events occurring with and without the influence of human activities was 3.67% and 0.012%,respectively.The contribution of human activities to extreme T_(max) events in summer 2022 was estimated to be 1.26℃(90%CI:0.86~1.68℃).The probability of extreme T_(min) events occurring with and without human activities is 23.5%and 0,respectively.The contribution of human activities to extreme T_(min) events in summer 2022 was estimated to be 2.35℃(90%CI:1.89~2.81℃).The CMIP6 model underestimated the observed temperature changes over the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau.The simulation deviation of the model is calibrated based on the attribution constraint method,and the projected summer maximum and minimum temperature over the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau are expected to continue to increase in the future under the medium emission SSP2-4.5 scenario of shared socioeconomic path.The risk of extreme T_(max) and T_(min) events similar to those in 2022 occurring on the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau in the future is increasing.

关 键 词：青藏高原 极端气温 人类活动 CMIP6 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]