GNSS面雨量预测技术在广东省山洪灾害预警中的应用  

Application of GNSS Aerial Rainfall Prediction Technology in Early Warning of Flash Floods in Guangdong Province

作　　者：周史强 王巧丽 ZHOU Shiqiang;WANG Qiaoli(Guangzhou Hydrological Branch of Guangdong Provincial Hydrological Bureau,Guangzhou 510150,China;Hydrological Bureau of Changjiang River Water Resources Commission,Wuhan 430000,China)

机构地区：[1]广东省水文局广州水文分局,广州510150 [2]长江水利委员会水文局,武汉430000

出　　处：《广东水利水电》2024年第12期8-12,共5页Guangdong Water Resources and Hydropower

摘　　要：面雨量精准预报是广东省水雨情测报和流域防洪减灾的一个关键环节,基于地面雨量筒的传统降水观测模式已无法满足大范围、高精度水雨情测报需求。当前,集成北斗、GPS等多源信息的面雨量预测模型研究具有较大的潜力。引入GNSS观测技术,开展面雨量预报技术研究,形成基于深度学习的面雨量测报新方法,研发的GNSS面雨量监测仪在广东省清远市开展山洪致灾暴雨测预能力评价。结果显示:①GNSS面雨量监测仪对于中雨及以下雨量预警方面应用效果较好;②对于单站点预报而言,GNSS面雨量监测仪优于欧洲ECMWF模式、美国GFS模式、中国HIGF等三种数值预报产品。因此,GNSS面雨量预报成果可为山洪灾害雨量预警以及防灾减灾提供重要的决策支撑。Accurate forecasting ofaerial rainfall is a key link in Guangdong Province s water and rainfall monitoring and flood control and disaster reduction in river basins.The traditional precipitation observation model based on aerial rain gauges can no longer meet the needs of large-scale and high-precision water and rainfall monitoring.Currently,research on aerial rainfall prediction models that integrate multi-source information such as Beidou and GPS has great potential.GNSS observation technology was introduced to carry out research on areal rainfall prediction technology,forming a new method of areal rainfall measurement and prediction based on deep learning.The GNSS areal rainfall monitor developed by us carried out an evaluation on the prediction ability of rainstorm caused by mountain torrents in Qingyuan City,Guangdong Province.The results show that:①GNSS areal rainfall monitor has a good application effect on early warning of moderate and below rainfall;②For single site forecasting,the GNSS aerial rainfall monitor outperforms three numerical forecasting products:the European ECMWF model,the American GFS model,and the Chinese HIGF model.Therefore,the GNSS aerial rainfall forecast results can provide important decision-making support for rainfall warning and disaster prevention and reduction in mountain flood disasters.

关 键 词：GNSS面雨量预测 山洪灾害预警 深度学习模型 

分 类 号：P332.1[天文地球—水文科学]