基于灰色模型的全国护理人力资源预测研究  

A study on national nursing human resources forecast based on grey model

作　　者：张翠玲[1] 翁穗芸 余敏[1] 陈子玲 卢想云 谢健儿 江妙玲[1] ZHANG Cuiling;WENG Suiyun;YU Min;CHEN Ziling;LU Xiangyun;XIE Jianer;JIANG Miaoling(The Affiliated Brain Hospital of Guangzhou Medical University,Guangdong Key Laboratory of Neuroscience Disease Research,Key Laboratory of Neuropathogenic Genes and Ion Channels,Ministry of Education,Guangzhou 510370,China)

机构地区：[1]广州医科大学附属脑科医院//广东省神经科学疾病研究重点实验室、神经致病基因和离子通道教育部重点实验室,广东广州510370

出　　处：《现代医院》2024年第12期1817-1820,1827,共5页Modern Hospitals

基　　金：国家临床重点专科建设项目(财社[2023]33号);广州市研究型医院、广州市卫生健康科技项目(20241A010047)。

摘　　要：目的 预测全国护理人力资源情况,为国家促进护士队伍建设提供政策依据。方法 选取2013—2023年全国注册护士数、全国总人口、全国注册(助理)医师数、全国医疗卫生机构床位数(万张),计算床护比、医护比及每千人口护士数,分析近十年全国护士人力资源变化;建立每千人口护士数灰色GM(1,1)模型,预测2024—2030全国每千人口护士数。结果 (1)近十年每千人口护士数逐年增加,年平均增长速度为11.38%;(2)构建每千人口护士数灰色GM(1,1)模型精准度较好(发展系数ɑ=-0.065 9、灰色作用量b=2.014 1、后验差比C值=0.003 3,小误差概率P=1.000),拟合程度高,预测2024—2030年的每千名人口注册护士数,分别为4.291、4.584、4.896、5.229、5.585、5.965、6.371人。结论 近十年全国护理人力资源配置优化,GM(1,1)模型预测全国护理人力资源变化同样处于上升趋势,但仍需制定相关政策以提高床护比、医护比。Objective To forecast the national nursing human resources situation and provide policy basis for promoting the development of the nurse team.Methods The registered nurse numbers,the total population,the registered(assistant) physician numbers,and the bed numbers in medical and health institutions(in thousands) were selected from 2013 to 2023,and the bed-to-nurse ratio,doctor-to-nurse ratio,and the number of nurses per thousand population were calculated and analyzed to study the changes in national nursing human resources over the past decade.A grey GM(1,1) model was established to predict the number of nurses per thousand population from 2024 to 2030.Results(1) The number of nurses per thousand population has increased year by year in the past decade,with an average annual growth rate of 11.38%;(2) The precision of the grey GM(1,1) model for the number of nurses per thousand population is precise(α=-0.065 9,b=2.014 1,C value=0.003 3,P=1.000),with high fitting degree.And the predicted number of registered nurses per thousand population from 2024 to 2030 are 4.291,4.584,4.896,5.229,5.585,5.965,and 6.371 respectively.Conclusion The national nursing human resources allocation has been optimized in the past decade,and the GM(1,1) model predicts that the national nursing human resources change is also in an upward trend.However,relevant policies still need to be formulated to improve the bed-to-nurse ratio and doctor-to-nurse ratio.

关 键 词：灰色模型 护理 人力资源 预测 

分 类 号：R192.6[医药卫生—卫生事业管理]