1960—2019年中国水稻气候生长期水热资源变化趋势及其归因分析  

Change trend and attribution analysis of water and thermal resources during rice climatological growth period from 1960 to 2019 in China

作　　者：徐金勤 邱新法[3] 朱平 肖潇 XU Jinqin;QIU Xinfa;ZHU Ping;XIAO Xiao(Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Agricultural Meteorology,Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology,Nanjing 210044,China;Guangdong Meteorological Service Center,Guangzhou 510640,China;School of Ecology and Applied Meteorology,Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing 210044,China;Wuhan Regional Climate Center,Wuhan 430074,China)

机构地区：[1]江苏省农业气象重点实验室(南京信息工程大学),江苏南京210044 [2]广东省气象服务中心,广东广州510640 [3]南京信息工程大学生态与应用气象学院,江苏南京210044 [4]武汉区域气候中心,湖北武汉430074

出　　处：《浙江农业学报》2024年第11期2575-2583,共9页Acta Agriculturae Zhejiangensis

基　　金：江苏省农业气象重点实验室开放基金(JKLAM2303);国家重点研发计划(2019YFB2102003);广东省气象局科学技术研究项目(GRMC2022M15)。

摘　　要：基于界限温度法确定水稻气候生长期指标,对比分析1960—2019年我国6个水稻种植主要农业区(东北平原区、黄淮海平原区、四川盆地及周边地区、长江中下游地区、云贵高原区和华南区)的水稻气候生长期及期间水热资源的变化特征,定量评价主要气候因子对水稻气候生长期间积温和湿润指数变化的具体贡献。结果表明:1960—2019年,研究区内水稻适播期均显著(P<0.05)提前(-0.08~-0.30 d·a^(-1)),适收期推迟(0.04~0.20 d·a^(-1)),气候生长期显著延长(0.1~0.5 d·a^(-1))。水稻气候生长期间积温显著增加,湿润指数下降,水热资源变化类型普遍为暖干型。在6个农业区内,水稻气候生长期间积温的显著增加均由水稻气候生长期间持续日数的增加主导。除黄淮海平原区内水稻气候生长期间湿润指数的降低由降水量减少主导外,其他农业区内水稻气候生长期间湿润指数的降低均由潜在蒸散量的显著增加主导。未来,应当重视水稻气候生长期间持续日数和潜在蒸散量显著增加对水稻生产的影响。Based on the boundary temperature method,the climatological growth period indicators of rice were determined.The temporal variations of water and thermal resources during the climatological growth period of rice in six agricultural regions in China(Northeast China Plain,Huang-Huai-Hai Plain,Sichuan Basin and surrounding regions,Middle-Lower Yangtze Plain,Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau,Southern China)were compared and analyzed.The specific contribution degree of major climate factors to the changes in water and thermal resources during the climatological growth period of rice were quantitatively evaluated.The results showed that the suitable sowing date of rice was significantly(P<0.05)advanced(-0.08--0.30 d·a^(-1)),the suitable harvest date was delayed(0.04-0.20 d·a^(-1)),and the climatological growth period was significantly prolonged(0.1-0.5 d·a^(-1))in the study area during 1960—2019.The accumulated temperature of rice increased significantly,the humidity index decreased,and the variation type of water and thermal resources of rice in the study regions were warm-dry.In the six agricultural regions,the significant increase of accumulated temperature was generally dominated by the increase of the duration days during rice climatological growth period.The decrease of humidity index during rice climatological growth period in Huang-Huai-Hai Plain was dominated by a decrease in precipitation,while the decrease of humidity index during rice climatological growth period in the other agricultural regions was dominated by the significant increase in the potential evapotranspiration.In the future,more attention should be paid to the effects of the significant increase in the duration days and potential evapotranspiration during rice climatological growth period on the rice production.

关 键 词：气候变暖 水稻气候生长期 水热资源变化 

分 类 号：S162.3[农业科学—农业气象学]