城市更新抑制房价快速增长了吗?——基于广东省“三旧”改造实践的实证研究  

Has Urban Regeneration Restrained the Excessive Growth of House Prices?:An Empirical Study Based on the Practice of the“Three Old Regeneration”in Guangdong,China

作　　者：黄志基[1,2] 石涛 易成栋[4] 陈敬安 Huang Zhiji;Shi Tao;Yi Chengdong;Chen Jinan(School of Government,Central University of Finance and Economics,Beijing 100081,China;Peking University-Lincoln Institute Center for Urban Development and Land Policy,Beijing 100871,China;School of Urban Planning and Design,Peking University Shenzhen Graduate School,Shenzhen 518055,China;School of Management Science and Engineering,Central University of Finance and Economics,Beijing 100081,China)

机构地区：[1]中央财经大学政府管理学院,北京100081 [2]北京大学-林肯研究院城市发展与土地政策研究中心,北京100871 [3]北京大学深圳研究生院城市规划与设计学院,广东深圳518055 [4]中央财经大学管理科学与工程学院,北京100081

出　　处：《中国管理科学》2024年第11期65-77,共13页Chinese Journal of Management Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(72274229,72174220);教育部人文科学基金一般项目(21YJAZH104);中央财经大学一流学科建设项目(2022);中央财经大学政府管理学院“科研创新团队支持计划”项目(2021)。

摘　　要：在土地资源约束趋紧和住房价格过快增长的双重压力下,合理调控房价成为政策制定者和学界关注的焦点。现有研究主要从增量发展视角探究房价调控的可能措施,较少关注进入存量发展阶段后房价可能的发展趋势及调控机制。本文利用广东省2009—2019年城市面板数据,基于存量发展视角,研究“三旧”改造对广东省城市房价增长率的影响。结果表明:(1)“三旧”改造实践显著抑制了房价过快增长,并且非珠三角地区比珠三角地区呈现出更为显著的抑制性作用;(2)调节效应表明,土地财政压力越小和存量开发动力越强的城市,其房价增长率受“三旧”改造抑制的程度越大;(3)机制检验表明,“三旧”改造通过增加房屋供给与降低地方政府土地出让金收入增长率两种途径,抑制了房价增长率上升。本文首次从城市与区域视角,验证了城市更新对房价快速增长的抑制作用,为未来推进城市更新和城市房价的调控提供了新的决策参考。While driving the rapid economic development,China's real estate industry is also showing a trend of rapid growth in housing prices.The long-term control mechanism to promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market is still being explored.At the same time,after a round of rapid urbanization expansion,Chinese cities,especially large cities,have entered the era of"stock development"from"incremental development".Among them,urban renewal,as an important activity in the development of urban China,has become a hot issue of concern,and the 2019 Central Economic Work Conference also emphasized strengthening urban renewal and the improvement of existing housing.Therefore,does urban renewal play a role in restraining the rapid growth of housing prices?More importantly,what is the mechanism of its influence?Further,whether there are obvious differences between different cities?What is the reason for the difference?The answers to these questions will help us understand the role of urban renewal in regulating market economic activities.At the same time,it will also be an important decision-making reference for China to vigorously promote urban renewal and drive the direction of real estate transformation and upgrading policies in the future.As a pioneer and pathfinder of China's urban renewal and real estate market stock development,Guangdong’s“Three old regeneration”has become an important measure for urban renewal.Since 2009,when they received the pilot policy support for the“Three old regeneration”,cities in Guangdong have made certain achievements in integrating existing land resource elements,reshaping the vitality of urban functions,revitalizing existing low-efficiency land,and promoting industrial transformation and upgrading.effectiveness.It can be said that after more than ten years of policy innovation and practical exploration,the“Three old regeneration”has had an important impact on the urban renewal and real estate market of Guangdong Province.Therefore,the 2009-2019 urban panel

关 键 词：城市更新“ 三旧”改造 房价增长率 土地财政 

分 类 号：F293.3[经济管理—国民经济]