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作 者:刘新建[1] 宋中炜 吴洁 Liu Xinjian;Song Zhongwei;Wu Jie(School of Economics and Management,Yanshan University,Hebei Qinhuangdao 066004,China;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences(UCAS),Beijing 100049,China;School of Statistics and Management,Shanghai University of Finance and Economics,Shanghai 200433,China)
机构地区:[1]燕山大学经济管理学院,河北秦皇岛066004 [2]中国科学院大学公共政策与管理学院,北京100049 [3]上海财经大学统计与管理学院,上海200433
出 处:《中国管理科学》2024年第11期325-334,共10页Chinese Journal of Management Science
基 金:国家自然科学基金项目(71974183,51861125101,71704100);上海浦江人才计划(2019PJC048)。
摘 要:能源经济系统转型是实现长期碳中和目标的关键,碳中和对经济转型要求与能源系统转型要求之间的矛盾是当前亟需解决的问题。文章围绕碳达峰与碳中和目标,基于动态可计算一般均衡模型(CGE),通过内生可再生能源技术进步和基于Logistic模型的电力技术替代刻画我国能源系统,研究了中国“碳中和”目标的实现路径,分析了不同强度的碳定价、可再生能源补贴及其组合政策在长期内对我国能源消费、电力生产结构的影响。研究发现:碳定价与可再生能源政策在实现能源系统深度脱碳化和短期优化能源结构方面有不同的优势,两种政策的结合相对于单一政策实施的效果更为明显;碳中和目标的实现仅依靠能源系统的转型难以实现,2020-2060年后期实现碳中和的难点将主要存在于基础工业部门和交通运输部门。The transformation of the energy economic system is the key to carbon neutrality,and the contradiction between the requirement of carbon neutrality for economic transformation and its requirement of energy system transformation is an urgent issue that needs to be addressed at present.A computable general equilibrium(CGE)model is developed to analysisthe impacts of different low-carbon policies on China's energy consumption and power generation structure in the long run.In order to characterize the energy system in China,the model in this study is enriched by endogenous technology improvement of renewable energy and substitution of different power generation technologies based on a Logistic model.The results show that while the carbon pricing and renewable energy subsidy policies have different advantages in realizing decarbonization of energy system and short-term optimization of energy structure,the combination of the two policies has lower macroeconomic costs and more significant effect on carbon emission mitigation than a single policy.The results indicate that it is difficult to achieve carbon neutrality only by the decarbonization of the energy system,and the difficulty in achieving carbon neutrality in the later period of 2020-2060 will mainly exist in the basic industrial sectors and the transportation sector.
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