南海仲裁案对中国与菲律宾经济联系的影响——基于合成控制法的实证研究  

Impact of the South China Sea arbitration case on the economic relations between China and the Philippines:An empirical study based on the synthetic control method

作　　者：邹嘉龄 隋广军 唐丹玲 ZOU Jialing;SUI Guangjun;TANG Danling(Guangdong Institute for International Strategies,Guangdong University of Foreign Studies,Guangzhou 510420,China;Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Guangzhou),Guangzhou 511458,China)

机构地区：[1]广东外语外贸大学广东国际战略研究院,广州510420 [2]南方海洋科学与工程广东省实验室(广州),广州511458

出　　处：《世界地理研究》2024年第11期28-40,161,共14页World Regional Studies

基　　金：广东省特支计划创新团队项目(2019BT02H594);国家自然科学基金项目(42201193);国家社会科学基金重大项目(21ZDA097)。

摘　　要：贸易和投资是国家间经济联系的主要形式。地缘政治争端会对双边经济联系产生影响,然而,关于其对贸易和投资的差异影响目前研究不足。本文主要基于2012年1月至2013年12月中国进口月度数据和2003—2019年中国对外直接投资年度数据,采用合成控制方法,考察了南海仲裁案对中国从菲律宾进口和中国对菲律宾外商直接投资的影响。实证结果表明,南海仲裁案对中国从菲律宾的进口没有显著影响,但2013—2019年中国对菲律宾的外商直接投资显著减少,并且通过改变控制池国家、改变事前结果选择和更改估计方法等一系列稳健性检验,结果依然显著。研究结果显示,没有充分证据表明中国因南海仲裁案对菲律宾实施了贸易制裁,但由于南海仲裁案增加了地缘政治不确定性,导致中国企业大幅减少了对菲律宾的直接投资,这可能会进一步影响菲律宾因南海仲裁案而引发的经济发展问题。Both trade and investment are important economic linkages between countries.Geopolitical conflicts may have great impact on economic linkages,while little is known how trade and investment respond to geopolitical conflict differently.Based on monthly data of January 2012-December 2013 of China's import and annual data of 2003-2019 China's outward direct investment(OFDI),this paper uses the synthetic control method to investigate the impact of the South China Sea(SCS)arbitration case on China's import from the Philippines and China's OFDI to the Philippines.The empirical results show that the SCS arbitration case did not have significant effect on China's import from the Philippines,but it decreased China's OFDI to the Philippines significantly since 2013.The results passed several robust checks.The results implicate that there is no evidence that China responded to the SCS arbitration case with trade sanctions.However,in terms of rising geopolitical uncertainty caused by the SCS arbitration case,China's firms decreased OFDI to the Philippines significantly,which may further impact economic development of the Philippines caused by the SCS arbitration case initiated by itself.

关 键 词：地缘争端 南海仲裁案 进口 对外直接投资 合成控制法 

分 类 号：F125[经济管理—世界经济] F134.1[政治法律—国际法学] D993.5[政治法律—法学]