黄河流域九省(区)农业面源污染与农业产值脱钩研究  

Decoupling analysis of agricultural non-point source pollution and agricultural output in nine provinces ofthe Yellow River basin

作　　者：邓茜月 王永生[1,2] DENG Xiyue;WANG Yongsheng(Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China;College of Geography and Planning,Chengdu University of Technology,Chengdu 610059,China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京100101 [2]成都理工大学地理与规划学院,成都610059

出　　处：《农业环境科学学报》2024年第11期2644-2656,共13页Journal of Agro-Environment Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(42271275)。

摘　　要：为探究黄河流域九省(区)农业面源污染与农业产值之间的关系,本研究基于清单分析法,测算了1978—2021年黄河流域九省(区)的化学需氧量、总氮和总磷排放量,并运用Tapio脱钩评价模型,研究了农业面源污染与农业产值之间的脱钩关系及其时空演化过程。结果表明:1978—2021年,黄河流域九省(区)农业面源污染排放量与农业产值整体呈现增加趋势,污染源结构与农业产值结构均发生显著变化;农业面源污染排放与农业产值的弹性脱钩状态呈现波动变化,并以弱脱钩状态为主,且存在显著空间差异性;脱钩状态的变化受到国家政策、自然生态、经济水平、人民需求等多因素影响。未来,黄河流域九省(区)农业高质量发展应采取差异化的流域和部门防治措施。The discharge of chemical oxygen demand,total N,and total P from agricultural sources in nine provinces of the Yellow River basin was measured from 1978 to 2021 based on the inventory analysis method to explore the relationship between agricultural non-point pollution and agricultural output value in nine provinces of the Yellow River basin,and the decoupling relationship between agricultural non-point pollution and agricultural output value and its spatio-temporal evolution process was investigated using Tapio evaluation model.The results showed that agricultural non-point source pollution discharges and agricultural output value in nine provinces of the Yellow River basin showed an increasing trend from 1978 to 2021,and the structure of agricultural pollution sources and the structure of agricultural output value showed significant changes.The elastic decoupling status between agricultural non-point source pollution discharges and agricultural output values showed fluctuating changes and was dominated by weak decoupling status,with significant spatial variability.Changes in decoupling status were influenced by multiple factors such as national policies,natural ecology,economic level,and people′s demand,among others.Future high-quality development of agriculture in the nine provinces of the Yellow River basin should adopt differentiated watershed and sectoral control measures.

关 键 词：农业面源污染 农业产值 清单分析 脱钩分析 演化机制 

分 类 号：F327[经济管理—产业经济] X71[环境科学与工程—环境工程] X52