风险偏好与印度外交战略的行为逻辑  

Risk Preferences and the Behavioral Logic of India's Diplomatic Strategy

作　　者：朱榆雯 Zhu Yuwen(the School of International Studies of Renmin University of China)

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学国际关系学院

出　　处：《当代亚太》2024年第5期108-133,163,164,共28页Journal of Contemporary Asia-Pacific Studies

摘　　要：尽管国际社会普遍认为印度是不结盟国家,但印度在对不结盟原则的遵循上却表现出动态调整的特征。印度自建国起的外交史表明,其战略布局一直围绕追求战略自主来进行。文章将印度的外交战略归纳为不结盟、对冲、制衡、准结盟四种类型,并探讨在始终追求战略自主的大背景下,印度出于何种原因做出以上四种外交战略选择。研究发现,印度不同时期的外交战略体现了其在战略自主问题上不同的风险偏好,这种风险偏好主要受三个因素的影响,即印度如何认知“中国威胁”、国际环境是否对印度的战略自主有利、印度主流思想的战略自主偏好。文章重在研究上述三个因素影响印度外交战略的作用机制,从而为印度外交战略选择的规律与动因提供合理解释。Although India is widely regarded as a non-aligned nation,its adherence to non-alignment has shown dynamic adjustments.Since independence,India's diplomacy has centered on pursuing strategic autonomy.This article identifies four types of Indian diplomatic strategies:non-alignment,hedging,balancing,and quasi-alignment,and examines the reasons behind these choices.The study highlights that India's strategies reflect varying risk preferences shaped by its perception of the "China threat," the international environment's support for its autonomy,and mainstream ideological preferences.The article analyzes how these factors influence India's strategy,offering insights into its diplomatic patterns and motivations.

关 键 词：印度外交战略 不结盟 战略自主 风险偏好 行为逻辑 

分 类 号：D835.1[政治法律—政治学]