全球价值链地位、汇率变动与中国出口  

Global Value Chain Status, Exchange Rate Changes, and China's Exports

作　　者：吴希凡 印梅[1] Wu Xifan;Yin Mei(School of Business,Nantong University,Nantong Jiangsu 226019)

机构地区：[1]南通大学商学院,江苏南通226019

出　　处：《对外经贸》2024年第12期24-28,53,共6页FOREIGN ECONOMIC RELATIONS & TRADE

基　　金：国家社科基金项目“全球价值链嵌入背景下汇率不确定与我国出口贸易‘稳中提质’研究”(项目编号:19BJY189);2024年江苏省研究生科研与实践创新计划项目“环境规制影响制造业出口质量的第三方溢出效应研究”(项目编号:KYCX24_3517)。

摘　　要：基于中国出口“一带一路”国家的相关数据,利用全球价值链地位指标分析了全球价值链地位给出口汇率弹性带来的影响。研究结果表明,人民币汇率对出口依然具有显著影响,汇率对出口竞争力的影响不能被忽视。然而,研究结果也表明全球价值链地位的提升将弱化出口的汇率弹性。因此,在人民币汇率市场化趋势下深度融入全球化生产、促进中国的全球价值链地位向高端攀升能有效弱化汇率变动对中国向“一带一路”国家出口的影响。值得注意的是,汇率市场化时代也要防止汇率过于剧烈的波动以减少对出口的冲击。Based on the relevant data of China's export countries along the"the Belt and Road",this paper comprehensively analyzes the impact of GVC status on export exchange rate elasticity by using GVC status indicators.The research results indicate that the RMB exchange rate still has a significant impact on exports,and the impact of exchange rate on export competitiveness cannot be ignored.However,the research results also indicate that an increase in the position of the global value chain will weaken the exchange rate elasticity of exports.Therefore,under the trend of RMB exchange rate marketization,deeply integrating into global production and promoting China's global value chain status to the high-end can effectively weaken the impact of exchange rate changes on China's exports to the"the Belt and Road"countries.It is worth noting that in the era of market-oriented exchange rates,it is also necessary to prevent excessive fluctuations in exchange rates to reduce the impactonexports.

关 键 词：全球价值链地位 汇率 出口 一带一路 

分 类 号：F752[经济管理—国际贸易]