中国制造业供需双循环测度及格局演变分析  

Measurement and Pattern Evolution Analysis of Supply-side and Demandside Dual Circulation Development of China's Manufacturing Industry

作　　者：施贞怀 殷凤[2] 龙飞扬 SHI Zhenhuai;YIN Feng;LONG Feiyang

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学书报资料中心经济编辑部,北京130012 [2]上海大学经济学院,上海200444 [3]南京审计大学,南京211815

出　　处：《亚太经济》2024年第6期153-166,共14页Asia-Pacific Economic Review

基　　金：国家社科基金青年项目“制造业嵌入双重价值链的动力机制、效应与路径研究”(21CJL019),教育部人文社科青年基金项目“全球价值链重塑下中国数字技术创新质量测度与激励政策研究”(23YJC790145),教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目“全球价值链、国际贸易政策体系‘双重构’的影响与应对研究”(22JZD041)。

摘　　要：基于增加值贸易核算框架,从双重价值链嵌入视角分别测算中国制造业需求端和供给端内外循环发展的动态演变趋势、行业异质性和国际对比情况。研究发现:不管是需求端还是供给端,中国制造业增长主要依靠内循环带动,且内循环带动的主导优势较明显;相对而言,中国制造业低技术行业产出更多来自国内要素投入,高技术行业产出更多来自国外要素投入。中国、美国、日本、巴西等制造业大国依赖国际循环程度相对较弱,新兴经济体在快速增长阶段较依赖外循环的作用,特别是在资本、技术密集型行业。Based on the accounting framework of value-added trade and from the perspective of dual value chain embedding,this paper calculates the dynamic evolution trend,industry heterogeneity and international comparison of the internal and external circulation development of China's manufacturing industry on the demand-side and the supply-side respectively.The results show that the growth of China's manufacturing industry is mainly driven by the internal circulation,and the dominant advantage of the internal circulation is obvious.Relatively speaking,the output of China's manufacturing low-tech industry comes more from domestic factor input,and the output of high-tech industry comes more from foreign factor input.Manufacturing powers,such as China,the United States,Japan,and Brazil are relatively weak in their reliance on the international circulation,emerging economies in the rapid growth stage is more dependent on the role of the external circulation,especially in the capital,technologyintensive industries.

关 键 词：制造业 需求双循环 供给双循环 双重价值链 国内价值链 

分 类 号：F831[经济管理—金融学]