基于系统动力学的电力-用能权-碳市场协同效应分析  

Analysis of Synergistic Effects of Electricity-Energy-Carbon Market Based on System Dynamics

作　　者：乌日根和希格 杨婵 马裕泽 余滔 赵会茹[1] Wu Rigenhexige;Yang Chan;Ma Yuze;Yu Tao;Zhao Huiru(School of Economics and Management,North China Electric Power University,Beijing 102206,China)

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学经济与管理学院,北京102206

出　　处：《科技管理研究》2024年第20期211-221,共11页Science and Technology Management Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金委员会-企业创新发展联合基金项目“碳-电耦合环境下电力市场融合交易机制设计及综合价值发现方法”(U22B20110)。

摘　　要：碳交易市场和用能权交易市场作为推动电力市场清洁转型的关键政策性市场,两者之间存在着重要的交互关系以及协同效应。当前,中国的用能权市场仍处在发展进程之中,电力-用能权-碳市场的协同效应及其对发电企业产生的具体影响还未得以清晰明确。鉴于此,深入剖析了电力-用能权-碳市场的运作规则和交互机制,并构建了考虑用能权与碳排放权互认抵消机制的系统动力学模型。结果表明:多市场的协同能显著地降低碳排放,对企业提升能效以及投资清洁能源起到激励作用,其中清洁能源发电企业的利润空间可实现大约2.81%的增长;灵活设置互认抵消上限对于优化资源配置以及降低履约成本具有重要意义,在此情况下传统能源发电企业的利润空间会减少4.32%至6.37%。研究结论为深刻理解市场间的协同关系、科学合理的政策制定以及市场参与者的策略调整提供坚实的理论依据和实证支持。The carbon trading market and the energy consumption rights trading market are key policy markets that promote the clean transformation of the electricity market.There are important interactions and synergistic effects between the two.Currently,China's energy consumption rights market is still in the process of development,and the synergistic effects of the electricity-energy-carbon market and its specific impact on power generation enterprises have not yet been clearly defined.In view of this,this paper provides an in-depth analysis of the operating rules and interaction mechanism of the electricity-energy consumption rights-carbon market,and constructs a system dynamics model that considers the mutual recognition and offset mechanism of energy consumption rights and carbon emission rights.Research results show that multi-market collaboration can significantly reduce carbon emissions and provide incentives for enterprises to improve energy efficiency and invest in clean energy.Among them,the profit margins of clean energy power generation enterprises can achieve approximately 2.81%growth;flexible setting of the mutual recognition offset ceiling is of great significance for optimizing resource allocation and reducing compliance costs.In this case,the profit margin of traditional energy power generation enterprises will be reduced by 4.32%to 6.37%.The research conclusions provide a solid theoretical basis and empirical support for a deep understanding of the synergistic relationship between markets,scientific and reasonable policy formulation,and strategic adjustments of market participants.

关 键 词：碳市场 用能权市场 系统动力学模型 市场协同 清洁能源转型 

分 类 号：F426.61[经济管理—产业经济] F062.2[文化科学] G301