基于MaxEnt模型的云杉潜在分布模拟  

Potential Distribution Simulation of Picea asperata Based on MaxEnt Model

作　　者：苏玉良 赵伊玲 殷宝 宁春如 张晓玮 Yuliang Su;Yiling Zhao;Bao Yin;Chunru Ning;Xiaowei Zhang(College of Forestry,Gansu Agricultural University,Lanzhou Gansu)

机构地区：[1]甘肃农业大学林学院,甘肃兰州

出　　处：《建模与仿真》2024年第6期6211-6219,共9页Modeling and Simulation

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(31860197)。

摘　　要：目的:云杉(Picea asperata Mast.)作为中国西秦岭、横断山区、四川盆地及其边缘地区的主要建群树种,在维系地区生态平衡、水土保持以及林木资源供给等方面具有重要作用。方法:本研究基于40个云杉自然分布样点,利用最大熵模型(MaxEnt)探究云杉在主要气候因子影响下的潜在适宜分布区。结果:MaxEnt模型的潜在分布模拟结果具有极高精确度,所有模型的AUC值均大于0.99;气候因子响应曲线表明温度(温度季节性变化)是限制云杉分布的主导因子;经过模拟得到的云杉潜在分布区范围约46.79万km^(2),高适生区面积为3.05万km^(2),中适生区面积为8.93万km^(2),低适生区面积为34.81万km^(2)。结论:云杉高适生区的精确预测可为森林管理提供针对性的保护和种植策略,建议在高适生区将云杉种植作为生态恢复和造林项目的主要树种。Objective:Picea asperata Mast.is the main constructive tree species in the western Qinling Mountains,Hengduan Mountains,Sichuan Basin and its marginal areas in China.It plays an important role in maintaining regional ecological balance,soil and water conservation,forest resources supply and so on.Method:Based on the natural distribution of 40 P.asperata samples,the maximum entropy model(MaxEnt)was used to explore the potential suitable distribution area of P.asperata under the influ-ence of main climatic factors.Result:The results showed that the potential distribution simulation of MaxEnt model had extremely high accuracy,and the AUC values of all models were greater than 0.99.The response curve of climatic factors showed that temperature(seasonal variation of temperature)was the dominant factor limiting the distribution of P.asperata.The potential distribution area of P.asperata obtained by simulation was about 467,900 km^(2),the high suitable area was 30,500 km^(2),the medium suitable area was 89,300 km^(2),and the low suitable area was 348,100 km^(2).Conclusion:The accurate prediction of P.asperata at high suitable area can provide targeted protection and planting strategies for forest management.It is suggested that P.asperata planting should be the main tree species for ecological restoration and afforestation projects at high suitable area.

关 键 词：最大熵(MaxEnt)模型 云杉(Picea asperat Mast.) 潜在分布 主导环境因子 

分 类 号：S76[农业科学—森林保护学]