融合相似预报方法在陇东南短期强降水预报中的应用  

Application of Fusing Analog Method in Short-term Heavy Precipitation Forecast in Southeastern Gansu

作　　者：黄晓远 李旭[1] 杜梦莹 叶培龙[2] 李艳[1] HUANG Xiaoyuan;LI Xu;DU Mengying;YE Peilong;LI Yan(College of Atmospheric Sciences,Lanzhou University,Lanzhou 730000,Gansu,China;Lanzhou Central Meteorological Observatory,Lanzhou 730020,Gansu,China)

机构地区：[1]兰州大学大气科学学院,甘肃兰州730000 [2]兰州中心气象台,甘肃兰州730020

出　　处：《高原气象》2025年第1期214-223,共10页Plateau Meteorology

基　　金：甘肃省自然科学基金项目(21JR7RA715,21JR7RA497)。

摘　　要：基于逐步过滤相似法和自组织映射(SOM)神经网络方法,提出了一种融合相似预报方法。利用ECMWF模式预报产品、ERA5再分析资料和地面气象台站观测数据,使用该方法对2021-2022年陇东南地区开展了时效为72 h的强降水预报试验,并对预报效果进行了检验。结果表明:(1)融合相似预报方法的TS评分处于4.5%~9.1%之间,与ECMWF模式预报结果相比表现出一定的优势。随着预报时效的增长,强降水预报的TS评分呈现减小的趋势,其在08:00(北京时,下同)起报的TS评分相对较高。(2)相比于单独使用逐步过滤相似预报,融合相似预报方法的准确性有所提升,并能在一定程度上降低空报率。其中08:00起报和20:00起报的TS评分提高了1.31%和0.63%,而FAR同时下降了2.39%和1.25%。Based on similar forecast method with step-by-step filter and Self-organizing map(SOM)neural network,a fusing analog forecast method is proposed.Using ECMWF model forecast products,ERA5 reanalysis data and station data,this method is used to carry out a 72-hour forecast of heavy precipitation in southeastern Gansu from 2021 to 2022,and the forecast effect is tested.The results show that the TS score of the fusing analog forecast method ranges from 4.5%to 9.1%,demonstrating a certain advantage compared to the forecast results of the ECMWF model.As the forecast lead time increases,the TS score of the heavy precipitation forecast shows a decreasing trend,with relatively higher TS scores forecasted at 08:00.Compared with the similar forecast method with step-by-step filter alone,the accuracy of the fusing analog forecast method is improved,and it can alleviate the problem of high false alarm rate to a certain extent.Specifically,the TS scores forecasted at 08:00 and 20:00 are increased by 1.31%and 0.63%,while the FAR is decreased by 2.39%and 1.25%.

关 键 词：强降水 短期预报 相似预报 逐步过滤相似 自组织映射(SOM) 

分 类 号：P456.1[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]