2024年新疆乌什7.1级地震和中国台湾花莲7.3级地震前的大震长期平静及中国内地强震危险性研究  

Research on the Long-term Quiescence of Large Earthquakes before the Wushi,Xinjiang M_(S)7.1 Earthquake and the Hualian,Taiwan M_(S)7.3 Earthquake in 2024 and the Strong-earthquake Risk in Chinese Mainland

作　　者：赵小艳[1] 苏有锦[1] 孟令媛[2] 臧阳[2] ZHAO Xiaoyan;SU Youjin;MENG Lingyuan;ZANG Yang(Yunnan Earthquake Agency,Kunming 650224,Yunnan,China;China Earthquake Networks Conter,Beijing 100045,China)

机构地区：[1]云南省地震局,云南昆明650224 [2]中国地震台网中心,北京100045

出　　处：《地震研究》2025年第1期32-40,共9页Journal of Seismological Research

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2021YFC3000705);云南省科技创新团队(CXTD202412).

摘　　要：对2024年新疆乌什7.1级地震和中国台湾花莲7.3级地震前出现的长期地震平静现象及其平静结束后的地震趋势进行了分析,进而对中国内地当前仍存在的2个大震长期地震平静区域及其危险性进行了分析和讨论。结果表明:①乌什7.1级地震结束了天山地震带长达31年的7级以上地震长期平静状态,可能预示着天山地震带将进入一个新的7级以上地震活跃时段;花莲7.3级地震结束了中国台湾地区长达17年的7级以上地震长期平静状态,可能预示着中国台湾地区将进入一个新的7级以上地震活跃时段。②南北地震带南段的云南地区自1996年丽江7.0级地震以来地震平静时间超过28年,南北地震带北段的甘肃-宁夏地区自1954年内蒙古阿拉善盟阿拉善左旗7.0级地震以来地震平静时间已超过70年,这2个区域当前或未来一个时期发生7级以上地震的风险较高,尤其是云南地震地区,应引起特别的关注和研究。We analyzed the long-term quiescence before the 2024 Wushi M_(S)7.1 earthquake in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region and the Hualian M_(S)7.3 earthquake in Taiwan Province of China,and discussed the earthquake tendency in Chinese Mainland after the quiescence.Then we further analyzed the long-term,quiescent of large earthquakes that still exist in 2 regions in Chinese Mainland and the earthquake risk which the 2 regions are facing.The Wushi M_(S)7.1 earthquake marked the end of the 31-year-long quiescent state of M_(S)≥7.0 earthquakes in the Tianshan Earthquake Zone,which may indicate that strong earthquakes will enter a new active-period in the Tianshan Earthquake Zone.The Hualian M_(S)7.3 earthquake marked the end of the 17-year-long quiescent state of M_(S)≥7.0 earthquakes in Taiwan,which may indicate that strong earthquakes will enter a new active-period of in Taiwan region.Strong-earthquake activity has been quiescent for over 28 years in Yunnan region in the southern section of the North-South Seismic Belt since the Lijiang M_(S)7.0 earthquake in 1996,and strong-earthquake activity has been quiescent for over 70 years in Gansu-Ningxia region in the northern section of the North-South Seismic Belt since the M_(S)7.0 earthquake in Alxa Left Banner,Alxa League,Inner Mongolia in 1954.So,the risk of strong earthquakes with M_(S)≥7.0 in Yunnan region and Gansu-Ningxia region is relatively high,and Yunnan should be paid more attention to.

关 键 词：乌什7.1级地震 花莲7.3级地震 地震长期平静 南北地震带 

分 类 号：P315.72[天文地球—地震学]