考虑分布式新能源的电网运行风险评估指标体系构建方法  

A method for constructing a risk assessment indicator system for grid operation considering distributed new energy sources

作　　者：刘海鹏[1] 杨晓静[1] 陆涛 马钢[1] 卢向东[1] 李振斌 郑骁麟 LIU Haipeng;YANG Xiaojing;LU Tao;MA Gang;LU Xiangdong;LI Zhenbin;ZHENG Xiaolin(State Grid Tianjin Electric Power Company,Tianjin 300010,China;Binhai Power Supply Branch,State Grid Tianjin Electric Power Company,Tianjin 300450,China;Electric Power Research Institute,State Grid Tianjin Electric Power Company,Tianjin 300384,China)

机构地区：[1]国网天津市电力公司,天津300010 [2]国网天津市电力公司滨海供电分公司,天津300450 [3]国网天津市电力公司电力科学研究院,天津300384

出　　处：《浙江电力》2024年第12期1-14,共14页Zhejiang Electric Power

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2022YFB2403900)。

摘　　要：分布式新能源的渗透率不断增加,给电力系统运行控制带来颠覆性挑战。构建一个考虑分布式新能源的电网运行指标体系,对于指导大电网安全稳定运行具有重要意义。首先,分析了分布式新能源出力波动对全网有功平衡、分区发用电平衡以及主配网无功交换的影响;然后,考虑常规机组置换和新能源机组的弱抗扰能力,揭示了分布式新能源渗透率提升后暂态电压和频率失稳的机理。在此基础上,建立了涵盖平衡风险、安全稳定风险、稳态调节能力和稳定控制能力的风险评估指标体系,通过风险控制能力指标刻画各类调控资源在不同时间尺度上的风险调控水平;将方式概率纳入风险指标评估模型,利用概率化的离散场景为调度运行人员制定相应的控制策略提供技术支撑。最后,通过标准测试系统和实际电网系统的案例,验证了所提出的运行指标体系和评价方法的有效性。The increasing penetration of distributed new energy sources presents subversive challenges to the operation and control of power system.It is of great significance to construct an operation indicator system for power grid considering distributed new energy sources to guide the safe and stable operation of large power grid.This paper first analyzes the impact of the fluctuations in distributed new energy output on active power balance across the grid,the balance between generation and consumption in different partitions,and the reactive power exchange between the main and distribution networks.Next,considering the replacement of conventional units and the weaker disturbance resistance of new energy units,the mechanisms behind transient voltage and frequency instability are revealed as the penetration of distributed new energy sources increases.Based on this analysis,a risk assessment indicator system is established,encompassing balance risk,safety and stability risk,steady-state regulation capability,and stability control capability.The risk control capability indicator is introduced to characterize the risk regulation levels of various control resources across different time scales.Furthermore,by incorporating probability method into the risk indicator assessment model,probabilistic discrete scenarios are used to provide technical support for dispatch operators in developing appropriate control strategies.Finally,the effectiveness of the proposed operation indicator system and evaluation method is validated through case studies on both standard test systems and actual power systems.

关 键 词：分布式新能源 指标体系 概率预测 风险评估 

分 类 号：TM732[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]