基于AHP模型的冷水江市铎山镇岩溶塌陷易发性评价  

Susceptibility evaluation of karst collapse based on AHP model in Duoshan Town,Lengshuijiang City

作　　者：陈鼎 黎新跃 凌宏辉 Chen Ding;Li Xinyue;Ling Honghui(Hunan Resources and Environment Research Institute Co.,Ltd.,Changsha,Hunan 410014)

机构地区：[1]湖南省资源环境研究院有限公司,湖南长沙410014

出　　处：《资源环境与工程》2024年第6期698-706,共9页Resources Environment & Engineering

基　　金：湖南省地质灾害综合防治体系建设勘查项目(湘财建一指[2018]17号,湘财建二指[2019]19号)。

摘　　要：冷水江市铎山镇岩溶地面塌陷严重威胁居民生产和生活安全。为提出科学合理的防治措施,选取地貌与构造、地层岩性、地下水、人类工程活动、岩溶塌陷现状等5个影响因素的13个评价指标构建研究区岩溶塌陷易发性评价指标体系,分别采用AHP(层次分析法)-模糊综合评价模型和AHP-加权平均综合指数模型进行岩溶塌陷易发性评价。结果表明,两个模型确定的不、低、中、高易发区的频率比(塌陷占比与面积占比的比值)逐渐增大,AUC值分别为0.877和0.813,说明它们都能客观有效地评价铎山镇岩溶塌陷的易发性,而且AHP-模糊综合评价模型评价效果更好;研究区高、中、低、不易发区地面积分别为1.120、2.890、1.763、0.767 km^(2),占比分别为17.1%、44.2%、27.0%、11.7%。建议在高、中易发区采取以搬迁避让和工程治理为主的防治措施,在低、不易发区选择相对稳定区域作为新建居民安置区,同时全域均进行工程监测和群测群防。The karst ground collapse in Duoshan Town,Lengshuijiang City seriously threatens the safety of residents production and life.In order to put forward scientific and reasonable prevention and control measures,thirteen evaluation indexes in five influencing factors(such as landform and structure,stratum lithology,groundwater,human engineering activities and karst collapse status)were selected to construct the evaluation index system of karst collapse susceptibility in the study area.The AHP(analytic hierarchy process)-fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model and AHP-weighted average comprehensive index model were used to evaluate the susceptibility of karst collapse.The results show that the frequency ratio of non-,low-,medium-and high-susceptibility areas(the ratio of collapse proportion to area proportion)determined by the two models gradually increases,and the AUC values are 0.877 and 0.813,respectively,indicating that they can objectively and effectively evaluate the susceptibility of karst collapse in Duoshan Town,and the AHP-fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model has better evaluation effect.The areas of high-,medium-,low-and non-susceptibility areas in the study area are 1.120,2.890,1.763 and 0.767 km^(2)respectively,accounting for 17.1%,44.2%,27.0%and 11.7%respectively.It is suggested that the prevention and control measures based on relocation avoidance and project management should be taken in high and medium-prone areas,and relatively stable areas should be selected as new residential settlements in low and low-prone areas.At the same time,engineering monitoring and group monitoring and prevention should be carried out throughout the region.

关 键 词：岩溶塌陷 易发性评价 层次分析法 模糊综合评价模型 加权平均综合指数模型 

分 类 号：P642.25[天文地球—工程地质学] P642.26[天文地球—地质矿产勘探]