地方政府债务对系统性金融风险的传导机制研究  

Research on the Mechanism of Local Government Debt to Systemic Financial Risks

作　　者：赵强 朱雅玲 ZHAO Qiang;ZHU Yaling(School of Public Administration,Xi'an University of Finance and Economics,Xi’an,ShaanXi,710199;International Business School,Shaanxi Normal University,Xi’an,ShaanXi,710119)

机构地区：[1]西安财经大学公共管理学院,陕西西安710199 [2]陕西师范大学国际商学院,陕西西安710119

出　　处：《管理现代化》2024年第6期57-65,共9页Modernization of Management

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目“防止资本无序扩张风险研究”(22ZDA053)。

摘　　要：党的二十大报告指出要守住不发生系统性金融风险的底线,但快速增长的地方政府债务成为威胁中国金融稳定重要因素。为防范化解系统性金融风险,从影子银行、商业银行信贷以及房地产价格三个角度分析其中的传导机制,实证结果显示:地方政府债务规模的扩张会诱发系统性金融风险,且该影响具有时滞性和空间外溢性;影子银行、商业银行信贷和房地产价格的中介效应显著,但仅有影子银行和房地产价格传导路径存在空间联动性。对此,“遏制增量,化解存量”、分散债务资金来源弱化商业银行“取款机”作用、弱化影子银行举债主体地位以及消化房地产相关风险是防范系统性金融风险的重点举措。The report of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China point-ed out the necessary to maintain the bottom line of preventing systemic financial risks,but the rapidly expanding local government debt has become an important factor threatening financial stability.Depend on above situation,this paper analyzes the relationship between local govern-ment debt and systemic financial risks through following aspects:shadow banking scale,com-mercial bank credit and real estate prices.Empirical research shows that the expansion of local government debt would trigger systemic financial risk,and the impact has time lag and spatial spillover;Shadow banking,commercial bank credit and real estate prices have an intermediary effect but only the transmission path of shadow banking and real estate prices has spatial link-age.In this regard,the future measures to prevent and resolve systemic financial risks are to"curb the increment,dissolve the stock",diversify the sources of debt funds to weaken the role of"cash machines"of commercial banks,weaken the dominant position of shadow banks in debt raising,and digest real estate related risks.

关 键 词：地方政府债务 系统性金融风险 影子银行 银行信贷 房地产价格 

分 类 号：F832.5[经济管理—金融学]