基于三阶段DEA-Malmquist模型和分形理论的中国南方省份数字经济效率研究  

Study on efficiency of digital economy in southern provinces of China based on three-stage DEA-Malmquist model and fractal theory

作　　者：伍聪 叶耀军 林佳伟 WU Cong;YE Yaojun;LIN Jiawei(School of Science,Zhejiang University of Science and Technology,Hangzhou 310023,Zhejiang,China)

机构地区：[1]浙江科技大学理学院,杭州310023

出　　处：《浙江科技大学学报》2024年第6期467-481,共15页Journal of Zhejiang University of Science and Technology

摘　　要：【目的】为研究中国南方15个省(直辖市、自治区)(以下简称省份)的数字经济效率,提出了一种将数据包络分析(data envelopment analysis,DEA)和分形理论相结合的研究方法。【方法】首先,使用以投入为导向的三阶段DEA模型和Malmquist指数模型对中国南方省份数字经济效率进行静态和动态分析;然后,在分形理论的基础上,采用重标度极差分析法(rescale range analysis,R/S)来分析中国南方省份数字经济效率的未来趋势。【结果】在剔除随机因素和环境变量的影响后,中国南方省份数字经济综合效率(integrated technical efficiency,TE)、规模效率(scale efficiency,SE)均值呈下降趋势,纯技术效率(pure technical efficiency,PTE)均值呈上升趋势,且经济发达省份的数字经济效率高于经济欠发达省份的数字经济效率;效率分解结果表明,技术进步变化是驱动数字经济全要素生产率(total factor productivity,TFP)增长的主要因素;未来一段时间内中国南方大部分省份的数字经济综合效率呈上升趋势。【结论】本研究结果可为推动数字经济发展,提升区域经济效率提供科学依据和决策参考。[Objective]In order to study the efficiency of the digital economy in 15 provinces(municipalities directly under the Central Government and autonomous regions)(hereinafter referred to as provinces)in southern China,a research method combining the use of data envelopment analysis(DEA)and fractal theory was proposed.[Method]First,the input-oriented three-stage DEA model and Malmquist index were used to statically and dynamically analyze the digital economic efficiency of southern Chinese provinces;then,based on fractal theory,rescale range analysis(R/S)was applied to analyze the future trend of efficiency of digital economy in southern provinces of China.[Result]The results show that:after excluding the effects of random factors and environmental variables,the average values of integrated technical efficiency(TE)and scale efficiency(SE)of the digital economy in southern provinces of China show a downward trend,and the average value of pure technical efficiency(PTE)shows an upward trend,and the efficiency of digital economy of economically developed provinces is higher than that of economically underdeveloped provinces;the efficiency decomposition results show that change in technological progress is the main factor driving the growth of total factor productivity(TFP)in the digital economy;in the foreseeable future,TE in most provinces in southern China is on an upward trend.[Conclusion]The results of this study can provide scientific basis and decision-making reference for promoting the development of digital economy and enhancing regional economic efficiency.

关 键 词：数据包络分析 三阶段DEA模型 分形理论 重标度极差分析法(R/S) Malmquist指数模型 

分 类 号：F492[经济管理—产业经济]