基于MaxEnt和ArcGIS分析气候变化背景下水茄的潜在适生区  

Prediction of Potential Suitable Areas of Solanum torvum Based on MaxEnt and ArcGIS

作　　者：王艳茹 姚维 陈心悦 汪国海 周岐海[1,2,3] WANG Yanru;YAO Wei;CHEN Xinyue;WANG Guohai;ZHOU Qihai(Key Laboratory of Ecology of Rare and Endangered Species and Environmental Protection(Guangxi Normal University),Ministry of Education,Guilin Guangxi 541006,China;Guangxi Key Laboratory of Rare and Endangered Animal Ecology(Guangxi Normal University),Guilin Guangxi 541006,China;The Chongzuo White-headed Langur Field Observation and Research Station of Guangxi,Chongzuo Guangxi 532204,China;College of Chemistry and Bioengineering,Guangxi Minzu Normal University,Chongzuo Guangxi 532200,China)

机构地区：[1]珍稀濒危动植物生态和环境保护教育部重点实验室(广西师范大学),广西桂林541006 [2]广西珍稀濒危动物生态学重点实验室(广西师范大学),广西桂林541006 [3]崇左白头叶猴野外科学观测研究站,广西崇左532204 [4]广西民族师范学院化学与生物工程学院,广西崇左532200

出　　处：《广西师范大学学报（自然科学版）》2024年第6期205-214,共10页Journal of Guangxi Normal University:Natural Science Edition

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(32170492,32270504);广西自然科学基金(2019GXNSFDA245021,2023GXNSFAA026422);广西民族师范学院科研项目(2021BS002)。

摘　　要：对不同气候条件下植物适生区范围进行预测,有利于掌握该物种的植物地理分布特征及其对气候变化的响应策略。本研究基于水茄Solanum torvum现存的地理分布数据,利用最大熵模型(MaxEnt 3.4.4)模拟当前和未来2050s(2041—2060年)、2070s(2061—2080年)在3种不同温室气体气候情景下(RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5)水茄的潜在适生区,并通过ArcGIS 10.8进行可视化处理,分析其在中国的潜在空间格局及其环境影响因素。结果显示:模型训练数据集AUC值为0.962,表明模型的预测结果准确;年温度变化范围(bio7)、最冷季平均温度(bio11)、年均降水量(bio12)和最干季降水量(bio17)是影响水茄地理分布的主要环境因子。当前气候条件下,水茄的总适生区面积为79.14×10^(4)km^(2),高适生区面积为17.86×10^(4)km^(2),主要集中分布于广西和广东。不同时期水茄的适生区面积存在一定差异,未来各个时期水茄潜在分布区面积均有增大趋势,但2050s RCP4.5时期台湾地区的适生区面积却比当前减少了0.05×10^(4)km^(2)。因此,气候变暖对水茄的地理分布扩张有利。Predicting the range of suitable areas for plants under different climatic conditions is beneficial for understanding the geographical distribution characteristics of this plants and its response strategies to climate change.The potential distribution area of Solanum torvum in China under present and three future Representative Concentration Pathways scenarios(RCP2.6,RCP4.5 and RCP8.5)in 2050s and 2070s were simulated by the MaxEnt model(3.4.4),and then using ArcGIS(10.8)for visualization and analysis of its potential spatial patterns and environmental influencing factors in China.The AUC value for the reconstructed MaxEnt was 0.962,indicating excellent prediction accuracy of the model.Temperature annual range(bio7),mean temperature of the coldest quarter(bio11),annual precipitation(bio12),and precipitation of the driest quarter(bio17)were the dominant environmental factors that affected the distribution of S.torvum.The potentially suitable areas for the current distribution of S.torvum cover 79.14×10^(4)km^(2),with a high suitability area 17.86×10^(4)km^(2).The high suitability areas were mainly located in Guangxi and Guangdong provinces.There were significant differences in the suitable area of S.torvum between different periods,and its suitable area generally showed an expanding trend in future climate scenario.However,compared with the potential suitable area in the current climate,its suitable areas in Taiwan decreased 0.05×10^(4)km^(2) under the 2050s RCP4.5 period.Therefore,climate warming was beneficial for the geographical expansion of S.torvum.

关 键 词：水茄 MaxEnt模型 适生区预测 气候变化 

分 类 号：Q948[生物学—植物学]