基于MaxEnt模型的中国黄杉潜在适宜生境变化分析  

Analysis of Potential Suitable Habitat Change of Pseudotsuga sinensis Based on MaxEnt Model

作　　者：农小霞 郁华英 向盈盈 杨盼宇 张启伟[1,2] NONG Xiaoxia;YU Huaying;XIANG Yingying;YANG Pangyu;ZHANG Qiwei(Key Laboratory of Ecology of Rare and Endangered Species and Environmental Protection(Guangxi Normal University),Ministry of Education,Guilin Guangxi 541006,China;College of Life Sciences,Guangxi Normal University,Guilin Guangxi 541006,China)

机构地区：[1]珍稀濒危动植物生态与环境保护教育部重点实验室(广西师范大学),广西桂林541006 [2]广西师范大学生命科学学院,广西桂林541006

出　　处：《广西师范大学学报（自然科学版）》2024年第6期215-225,共11页Journal of Guangxi Normal University:Natural Science Edition

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(32260265)。

摘　　要：黄杉Pseudotsuga sinensis是中国特有植物,既是宝贵的经济树种也是山地生态系统中重要的组成成分,为国家Ⅱ级重点保护物种,但近年来由于非法采伐导致种群数量急剧下降,因而开展其相关保护研究迫在眉睫。本研究采用MaxEnt模型对黄杉在未来SSP126和SSP585这2种极端温室气体排放情景下的分布情况和空间格局变化进行预测,探究影响其分布的主要环境因子和动态变迁情况,并结合主要分布地年龄结构评估黄杉未来生存前景,以期为未来气候变化背景下黄杉种质资源的保护和合理利用提供理论基础。结果表明:1)最干月降水量、年降水量、海拔和最冷月最低温度是影响黄杉分布的关键因子,其贡献率分别是40.8%、24.7%、15.8%、7.2%;2)当前黄杉适生区主要分布在台湾地区和中国内地西南地区,核心分布区集中在云贵高原的高山地带;3)未来不同情景下的不同时期黄杉适生区分布呈现出北移的趋势,适生区面积有小幅增长,但是核心高适生区分布条带发生断裂,呈现出一定程度的破碎化分布;此外,多数重点保护种群的适生区情况不变,但个别种群适生区缩减,种群存在消失的潜在风险,应该对其进行重点保护。Pseudotsuga sinensis is an endemic plant in China,which is not only a valuable economic tree but also an important component of the mountain ecosystem,and is National Level II Key Protected Species in China.However,in recent years,due to logging activities,its number has declined sharply,so it is urgent to carry out related research on its protection.In this study,MaxEnt model was used to simulate the potential distribution and spatial pattern changes of the suitable areas of P.sinensis under the two extreme greenhouse gas emission scenarios of SSP126 and SSP585 in the future,to explore the main environmental factors influencing its distribution and its dynamic changes,and to evaluate the future survival prospects of P.sinensis combined with the age structure of the main distribution areas so as to provide a theoretical basis for the protection and rational utilization of P.sinensis germplasm resources under the background of climate change in the future.The results indicated that:1)Precipitation in the driest month,annual precipitation,elevation and the lowest temperature in the coldest month were the key factors affecting the distribution of P.sinensis,and their contribution rates were 40.8%,24.7%,15.8%and 7.2%,respectively;2)At present,the suitable habitat areas of P.sinensis were mainly distributed in Taiwan region and southwest China's mainland.The core distribution areas were concentrated in the alpine area of Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau;3)In the future,under different scenarios and at different periods,the distribution of suitable areas of P.sinensis showed a trend of northward migration,and the area of suitable areas increasd slightly,but the distribution strip of the core high suitable area was fractured,showing a certain degree of fragmentation distribution.In addition,the suitable areas of most key protected populations remained unchanged,but the suitable areas of some populations were reduced.These populations are at potential risk of extinction and should be prioritized for protection.

关 键 词：黄杉 气候变化 MAXENT 潜在适生区 分布格局 年龄结构 

分 类 号：Q948[生物学—植物学]