中国工业经济增长为何独立于国际油价波动?——基于油价波动来源和行业异质性的考察  

Why China’s Industrial Economic Growth Is Independent of International Oil Price Fluctuations:Based on the Sources of Oil Price Fluctuations and the Heterogeneity of Industrial Sectors

作　　者：张天顶[1] 包书妮 ZHANG Tian-ding;BAO Shu-ni(Economics and Management School,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072,Hubei,China)

机构地区：[1]武汉大学经济与管理学院,湖北武汉430072

出　　处：《西部论坛》2024年第6期78-91,共14页West Forum

摘　　要：国际油价波动是多种冲击(原油供给冲击、经济总需求冲击、特定性需求冲击)共同作用的结果,而不同冲击对中国工业产出增长的影响不同,且对不同工业行业的影响也不同,使得中国工业产出增长可能与国际油价波动同向变动或反向变动或没有相关性,由此产生中国工业产出增长独立于国际油价波动的现象。使用1998年7月至2023年9月的月度数据,运用SVAR模型,采用工具变量与符号约束相结合的识别方法,分析发现:不同冲击对国际油价的影响不同,原油供给冲击对中国工业产出增长的影响最大,3种冲击对中国工业产出增长的影响方向可能相反,原油供给冲击对低研发投入和中研发投入行业产出增长的影响较大,对高研发投入行业的影响较小,表明技术进步能够缓解国际油价波动对产出增长的冲击,经济总需求冲击和特定性需求冲击对高、低、中研发投入行业的影响依次减弱。因此,面对国际油价波动,应避免市场恐慌,坚持中国特色新型工业化的实践逻辑,并加强科技创新对经济发展的稳定作用。For a long time,fluctuations in international crude oil prices have been regarded as an important external risk source for macroeconomics.With the rise of the Chinese economy,China’s sensitivity to fluctuations in international crude oil prices is increasing,thus the impact of crude oil prices on China’s industrial output has attracted much attention.To better prevent the risk of oil price fluctuations and further stabilize industrial output,it is necessary to conduct a thorough analysis of the relationship between international crude oil prices and China’s industrial output.Starting from the fact that there is independence between international oil price fluctuations and changes in China’s industrial output,this article uses an SVAR model that combines external instrumental variables and symbolic constraints to decompose international oil price shocks and analyze industrial heterogeneity from July 1998 to September 2023,exploring the underlying mechanisms behind their independence.The research results indicate that,firstly,the impact directions of crude oil supply shocks,economic aggregate demand shocks,and specific demand shocks on changes in China’s industrial output are different.Among them,the impact of crude oil supply shocks on China’s industrial output dominated from 1998 to 2023.Secondly,the impact of crude oil supply shocks on industrial sectors with high R&D investment is minimal,while the impact on industrial sectors with low R&D investment is most significant.The industrial sector with high R&D investment shows the strongest recovery ability when dealing with economic aggregate demand shocks and specific demand shocks,followed by the industrial sector with moderate R&D investment.This conclusion confirms the view that the level of technological development can weaken the impact of international oil price fluctuations on changes in China’s industrial output.Thirdly,the sources of international oil price fluctuations,heterogeneity of China’s industrial sector,and temporal trends are the

关 键 词：油价波动冲击 原油供给冲击 经济总需求冲击 特定性需求冲击 技术创新 独立性 

分 类 号：F416[经济管理—产业经济] F224