南疆阿拉尔垦区棉花产量与生育期变化的相关性分析  

Correlation analysis of cotton yield and growth period change in Alar reclamation area of southern Xinjiang

作　　者：王煜 牛建龙[1,2,3] 马玉婷 程珍 李茂春 罗新宁[1,2,3] 柳维扬[1,2,3] WANG Yu;NIU Jianlong;MA Yuting;CHENG Zhen;LI Maochun;LUO Xinning;LIU Weiyang(College of Agronomy,Tarim University,Alar,Xinjiang 843300;Key Laboratory of Genetic Improvement and Efficient Production of Specialty Crops in Arid Southern Xinjiang of Xinjiang Corps,Alar,Xinjiang 843300;Key Laboratory of Tarim Oasis Agriculture Tarim University,Ministry of Education,Alar,Xinjiang 843300;Meteorological Bureau of Alar City,Alar,Xinjiang 843300)

机构地区：[1]塔里木大学农学院,新疆阿拉尔843300 [2]南疆干旱区特色作物遗传改良与高效生产兵团重点实验室,新疆阿拉尔843300 [3]塔里木绿洲农业教育部重点实验室,新疆阿拉尔843300 [4]阿拉尔市气象局,新疆阿拉尔843300

出　　处：《塔里木大学学报》2024年第4期37-43,共7页Journal of Tarim University

基　　金：棉花生物学国家重点实验室开放课题项目(CB2021A29);塔里木大学大学生创新训练项目(2023018)。

摘　　要：为探明棉花生育期动态变化对南疆阿拉尔垦区棉花产量波动的影响,选取1990—2020年南疆阿拉尔垦区皮棉产量数据和同期生育期数据,运用Mann-Kendall非参数突变检验、二次指数平滑法、相关性分析和优势主导分析方法,重点分析1990—2020年南疆阿拉尔垦区棉花产量波动与生育期动态变化的关系。结果表明:1990—2020年南疆阿拉尔垦区棉花实际产量和趋势产量均呈增加趋势,气候产量呈减少趋势,分别变化44.74 kg·hm^(-2)·a^(-1)、46.36 kg·hm^(-2)·a^(-1)和1.61 kg·hm^(-2)·a^(-1),其中,1990—2001年棉花趋势产量增长速度和同期气候产量减小速度均高于2001—2020年。1990—2020年南疆阿拉尔垦区棉花实际产量和趋势产量的增加均以开花-吐絮期的缩短影响为主,贡献率均达100%;气候产量的减少以同期棉花出苗-现蕾期的延长影响为主,贡献率为76.48%。1990—2001年和2002—2020年南疆阿拉尔垦区棉花实际产量的增加均以开花-吐絮期的缩短影响为主,贡献率均达100%;气候产量的减少分别受同期棉花出苗-现蕾期的延长和现蕾-开花期的缩短影响为主,贡献率分别为52.57%和54.45%。缩短棉花开花-吐絮期、出苗-现蕾期和延长现蕾-开花期有利于垦区棉花产量的增加。In order to explore the influence of dynamic changes of cotton growth period on yield fluctuation in Alar reclamation area of southern Xinjiang,the lint yield data and cotton growth period data from 1990 to 2020 in Alar reclamation area of southern Xinjiang were selected,and the relationship between cotton yield fluctuation and dynamic changes of growth period in Alar reclamation area of southern Xinjiang from 1990 to 2020 was analyzed by Mann-Kendall nonparametric mutation test,quadratic exponential smoothing method,correlation analysis and dominant analysis method.The results indicated that from 1990 to 2020 in the Alar reclamation area of southern Xinjiang,the actual yield and trend yield of cotton both exhibited an increasing trend,with changes of 44.74 kg·hm^(-2)·a^(-1) and 46.36 kg·hm^(-2)·a^(-1),respectively,while the climate yield displayed a decreasing trend,changing by 1.61 kg·hm^(-2)·a^(-1).From 1990 to 2001,the growth rate of the cotton trend yield and the growth rate of the climatic yield were both higher than those from 2001 to 2020.From 1990 to 2020,the increase of cotton actual yield and trend yield in Alar reclamation area of southern Xinjiang was mainly affected by the shortening of flowering-opening period,with a contribution rate of 100%.The decrease of cotton climatic yield was mainly affected by the extension of emergence-budding period,with a contribution rate of 76.48%.From 1990 to 2001 and 2002 to 2020 in the aral reclamation area of southern Xinjiang,the increase in actual cotton yield was primarily due to the shortening of the flowering-opening period,with a contribution rate of 100%for both periods.The decrease in climate yield was mainly influenced by the lengthening of the emergence-budding period and the shortening of the budding-flowering period during the same periods,with their respective contribution rates being 52.91%and 54.45%.Shortening the flowering-opening period,emergence-squaring period,and lengthening the budding-flowering period of cotton in the reclamation area a

关 键 词：棉花产量 生育期 相关性 南疆阿拉尔垦区 

分 类 号：S562[农业科学—作物学]