长江2024年第1号洪水预报调度复盘  

Retrospective analysis of flood forecast and reservoir operation during 2024 Changjinag River No.1 flood

作　　者：冯宝飞 曾明 张虎 纪国良 FENG Baofei;ZENG Ming;ZHANG Hu;JI Guoliang(Bureau of Hydrology,Changjiang Water Resources Commission,Wuhan 430010,China;Center of Technology Innovation for Intelligent Water Simulation,Forecasting and Operation of the River Basin,Wuhan 430010,China;Innovation Team for Flood and Drought Disaster Prevention of Changjiang Water Resources Commission,Wuhan 430010,China;Bureau of Flood Control and Drought Fight,Changjiang Water Resources Commission,Wuhan 430010,China;China Three Gorges Corporation,Wuhan 430010,China)

机构地区：[1]长江水利委员会水文局,湖北武汉430010 [2]流域水模拟与预报调度智能技术创新中心,湖北武汉430010 [3]长江水利委员会水旱灾害防御创新团队,湖北武汉430010 [4]长江水利委员会水旱灾害防御局,湖北武汉430010 [5]中国长江三峡集团有限公司,湖北武汉430010

出　　处：《人民长江》2024年第12期1-7,53,共8页Yangtze River

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFC3002701);水利部重大科技项目(SKR-2022011);中国长江三峡集团有限公司科研项目(0704189)。

摘　　要：2024年6月28日,长江2024年第1号洪水在中下游形成。在洪水应对期间,随流域洪水形势发展滚动开展洪水预报支撑流域水库群联合调度,同时在调度边界调整后及时滚动更新洪水预报,逐步提升了预报精度。通过对发布的洪水预报精度和水库群拦蓄过程进行统计,采用多种水文学、水力学方法对水库调度过程进行了还原并量化了防洪效益。复盘结果表明:提前5 d预报城陵矶以下河段将形成全线超警态势,提前4 d预报长江干流将形成编号洪水,各站提前1~3 d准确预测洪峰水位;通过水库群调度有效避免了长江上游洪水与洞庭湖、鄱阳湖洪峰遭遇,降低中下游干流及两湖出口控制站洪峰水位0.4~1.7 m,缩短中下游干流超警河长约206 km,避免监利至螺山河段水位超保证及城陵矶附近地区蓄滞洪区启用,防洪效益显著。研究成果可为长江流域防灾减灾和水库群联合调度提供参考。On June 28,2024 Changjiang River No.1 flood was formed in the middle and lower reaches of Changjiang River.During the flood fighting period,with the development of flood situations,rolling flood forecasting was carried out to support the joint operation of reservoir groups.When the boundary of reservoir operation was adjusted,the flood forecast was updated in a timely rolling manner,thus gradually improving the accuracy of the forecast and achieving good results in reservoir group operation.By statistically analyzing the accuracy of flood forecasts and the process of reservoir group storage,a variety of hydrology and hydraulics methods were used to reduce the reservoir operation process and quantify the flood control benefits.The results showed that the river section below Chenglingji Station was predicted to exceed the safety level along the whole line 5 days in advance,the mainstream of Changjiang River was predicted to form a numbered flood 4 days in advance,and the peak flood water level was accurately predicted 1~3 days in advance at each station.Through the operation of the reservoir group,the flood peak encounter among the upper reaches of Changjiang River,Dongting Lake,and Poyang Lake had been effectively avoided.The flood peak water level of the middle and lower mainstream and the outlet control station of two lakes were significantly reduced by 0.4 to 1.7 m.The river length of the middle and lower main stream which exceeded the safety level was shortened by about 206 km.The water level of the Jianli to Luoshan section was prevented from exceeding the guaranteed water level,and the use of flood storage and detention areas in the vicinity of Chenglingji region was avoided.The flood control benefits were remarkable.The research results can provide a reference for disaster prevention and mitigation and joint operation of reservoir groups in Changjiang River.

关 键 词：2024年长江洪水 洪水预报 水库群联合调度 防洪效益 长江中下游 

分 类 号：TV122.1[水利工程—水文学及水资源]