鄂东北诸河来水对汉口站水位顶托量化研究  

Quantitative analysis on backwater effect of rivers inflow from northeast Hubei Province on water level of Hankou Station

作　　者：徐雨妮 许银山 仇红亚 冯志州 惠宇 XU Yuni;XU Yinshan;QIU Hongya;FENG Zhizhou;HUI Yu(China Three Gorges Corporation,Yichang 443133,China;Bureau of Hydrology,Changjiang Water Resources Commission,Wuhan 430010,China;China Yangtze Power Co.,Ltd.,Yichang 443002,China;Changjiang Survey,Planning,Design and Research Co.,Ltd.,Wuhan 430010,China)

机构地区：[1]中国长江三峡集团有限公司,湖北宜昌443133 [2]长江水利委员会水文局,湖北武汉430010 [3]中国长江电力股份有限公司,湖北武汉443002 [4]长江勘测规划设计研究有限责任公司,湖北武汉430010

出　　处：《人民长江》2024年第12期39-45,共7页Yangtze River

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFC3002701);中国长江三峡集团有限公司科研项目(0704231)。

摘　　要：围绕汉口站水位预报精度提升问题,开展了鄂东北来水对汉口站水位顶托量化研究。复盘了2024年汉口站水位发展过程及水位流量关系变化趋势,辨析了汉口站水位影响因素,定性分析了鄂东北来水对汉口站泄流能力的影响,并以2014年以来鄂东北合成来水顶托典型案例为研究对象,采用经验公式和多元回归方法,以鄂东北合成来水涨幅、汉口站当下水位量级以及该量级下水位上涨1 m时对应的流量变幅为变量,构建了汉口站水位顶托量化模型,量化分析了鄂东北来水对汉口站水位的顶托程度。研究结果表明:鄂东北来水最大涨幅中能够对汉口站水位产生实际影响的流量所占比例为0.3~0.8;汉口站水位顶托量化模型相关系数达到了0.94,检验误差在0.1 m以内,可以较为准确和便捷地计算鄂东北来水对汉口站水位的顶托量,为汉口站水位精细化预报提供了重要参考依据。In order to improve the prediction accuracy of the water level of Hankou Station,a quantitative analysis of the backwater effect of the inflow from rivers in northeast Hubei Province on the water level of Hankou Station was conducted.This article reviewed the development of water level and the change tendency of the relationship between the water level and flow of Hankou Station in 2024,analyzed the influencing factors of the water level of Hankou Station,and qualitatively analyzed the impact of the inflow from Northeast Hubei Province on the discharge capacity of Hankou Station.Regarding the typical inflow from Northeast Hubei Province since 2014 as the research objects,based on empirical formula and multiple regression method,a quantitative model for the backwater effect of the inflow from Northeast Hubei Province on the water level of Hankou Station was constructed,which takes the compound rising magnitude of inflow from northeast Hubei Province,the water level of Hankou Station at that time,and the corresponding flow amplitude when the water level risen by 1 m as variables.The results indicated that during the maximum rising magnitude of inflow from Northeast Hubei Province,there is a proportion of 30%~80%flood quantities that have a backwater effect on the water level of Hankou Station.The correlation coefficient reached 0.94 and the test error was within 0.1 m.From the results,it can be seen that the correlation function can accurately and conveniently calculate the backwater effect of the inflow from Northeast Hubei Province on the water level of Hankou Station.

关 键 词：2024年长江洪水 鄂东北诸河来水 汉口站 水位顶托 水位流量关系 水位预报 

分 类 号：TV123[水利工程—水文学及水资源]