湖南省“十四五”卫生总费用预测及影响因素研究  

The forecast and influencing factors of total health expenditure during the 14th Five⁃Year Plan of Hunan Province

作　　者：仲光金 丁海峰 ZHONG Guangjin;DING Haifeng(College of Public Administration and Law,Hunan Agricultural University,Changsha 410128,China)

机构地区：[1]湖南农业大学公共管理与法学学院,湖南长沙410128

出　　处：《南京医科大学学报（社会科学版）》2024年第6期566-573,共8页Journal of Nanjing Medical University（Social Sciences）

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目“全景关怀:大国社会保障高质量发展研究”(22FGLA004);湖南省哲学社科基金重大项目“湖南省农村智慧健康养老体系研究”(XSP21ZDA001);湖南农业大学研究生科研创新项目“数字技术”(2024XKC082)。

摘　　要：文章基于2010—2022年湖南省卫生总费用及相关数据,对卫生费用总额及其筹资结构进行描述性分析,利用GM(1,1)模型和灰色关联分析法,对“十四五”期间卫生总费用进行预测的同时,深入探讨影响因素。结果显示,湖南省卫生总费用及其与国内生产总值(GDP)比值总体呈上升趋势,预计到2025年,卫生总费用与GDP的比值(7.23%)将接近卫生总费用可持续性的警戒值(8%);从筹资结构来看,个人卫生支出比例仍然较高;从影响因素来看,人均GDP与城乡居民人均可支配收入是推动卫生总费用增长的首要因素,医疗机构总诊疗人次、病床使用率、卫生机构数、老龄化程度与城市化水平次之,政府财政能力与卫生投入对卫生总费用的影响缺乏弹性。湖南省卫生筹资的可持续性面临极大挑战,应从供需双方共同合理控制卫生费用上涨。Based on the total health expenditure and related data of Hunan Province from 2010 to 2022,the article conducts a descriptive analysis of the total health expenditure and its financing structure while utilizing the GM(1,1)model and grey relation analysis to predict the total health expenditure during the 14th Five⁃Year Plan period along with an in⁃depth discussion of its influencing factors.The results indicate that the total expenditure of health and its ratio to GDP in Hunan Province are generally on the rise,and the ratio of total cost of health to GDP(7.23%)is expected to be close to the threshold value of the sustainability of total cost of health(8%).In terms of the financing structure,the proportion of personal health expenditure is still relatively high.Regarding the influencing factors,the GDP per capita and the per capita disposable income of urban and rural residents are the primary factors contributing to the growth of total health expenditure,followed by the total number of visits to health institutions,hospital utilization rate,the number of health institutions,the aging rate and the level of urbanization.The impact of government financial capacity and health inputs on the total health expenditure is inelastic.The sustainability of health financing in Hunan Province faces significant challenges,and the rise in healthcare expenditure should be reasonably controlled from both the supply and demand sides.

关 键 词：卫生总费用 筹资结构 灰色系统理论 预测研究 影响因素 

分 类 号：R197.1[医药卫生—卫生事业管理]