四川省极端高温干旱复合事件变化特征研究  

Study on the Variation Characteristics of Extreme High Temperature and Drought Compound Events of Sichuan Province

作　　者：卫仁娟[1] 潘妮[1] 钟馨 赵璐[2] 梁川[2] 崔宁博[2] WEI Renjuan;PAN Ni;ZHONG Xin;ZHAO Lu;LIANG Chuan;CUI Ningbo(Sichuan Water Conservancy Vocational College,Chengdu 611200,China;College of Water Resource and Hydropower,Sichuan University,Chengdu 610065,China)

机构地区：[1]四川水利职业技术学院,四川崇州611200 [2]四川大学水利水电学院,四川成都610065

出　　处：《水文》2024年第6期60-67,75,共9页Journal of China Hydrology

基　　金：“四川省科技计划资助”(2022NSFSC1125);中国工程院战略研究与咨询项目“四川季节性干旱区农业绿色高效用水机制与抗旱减灾战略研究”(2023-DFZD-31);国家自然科学基金项目“南方季节性干旱区滴灌猕猴桃园耗水规律与蒸发蒸腾量模拟研究”(52109060)。

摘　　要：根据四川省川东盆地山地区、川西高山高原区和川西南山地区三个分区40个气象站1961—2022年的逐日气象数据,通过极端高温阈值、标准化降水蒸散指数(SPEI)计算研究区极端高温、干旱及复合事件的日数、强度,分析其变化趋势和空间分布特征,确定综合风险指数。研究结果表明:(1)高温、干旱及复合事件在三个分区上均呈现增加趋势,川西南山地区是高温干旱复合事件增加趋势最显著的地区。(2)从综合风险指数来看,时间上,整个研究区并发高温事件的年份较多,并发干旱事件的年份不多。21世纪以来,6—10月高温干旱复合事件影响整个研究区的年份较多,尤以2006和2022年综合风险指数最高;空间上,站点高风险指数主要分布于川东盆地山地区,为高温干旱复合事件防御重点区域。(3)2022年高温、干旱及复合事件异常分布具有区域一致性特性,三类事件发生日数、强度相对多年平均明显偏多。复合事件主要集中在7、8月份,川东盆地山地区是三类事件高值区的叠加中心,受高温干旱复合事件影响最大。The days and intensity of extreme heat,drought,and compound events were calculated based on the extreme heat threshold and standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index(SPEI)using the daily meteorological data from 40 meteorological stations in the mountain area of the eastern Sichuan Basin,the mountain area of the eastern Sichuan Basin and the southwest Sichuan mountain from 1961 to 2022.The changing trends and spatial distribution characteristics of extreme heat,drought and compound events were analyzed and the comprehensive risk indexes were determined.The results show:(1)the long-term changes of the three types of events in the three areas show increasing trends,which is the most obvious in the southwest Sichuan mountain area.(2)According to the comprehensive risk index,there are many years with concurrent high temperature events in the whole study area.The years of concurrent drought in the whole study area are few.Since the 21st century,there are more years in which the compound events from June to October affected the whole study area,with the highest comprehensive risk index in 2006 and 2022.The high-risk indexes of the sites are mainly distributed in the mountain area of the eastern Sichuan Basin,which is a key area for the defense of extreme high-temperature and drought compound events.(3)The abnormal distribution of the three types of events in 2022 is regional consistency.The occurrence days and intensity of the three types of events are significantly more than the average of many years.The compound events occurred in stages,mainly in July and August.The mountain area of east Sichuan Basin is the superposition center of the three types of events in 2022,which is most affected by the compound events.

关 键 词：高温 干旱 复合事件 标准化降水蒸散指数(SPEI) 四川省 综合风险指数 

分 类 号：P33[天文地球—水文科学] P429[水利工程—水文学及水资源]