浙江省台风暴雨强度-历时-频率关系分析  

Intensity-Duration-Frequency Relationships of Typhoon Rainstorm in Zhejiang Province

作　　者：李瑜萱 徐羽 高超[1] LI Yuxuan;XU Yu;GAO Chao(Department of Geography and Spatial Information Techniques,Ningbo University,Ningbo 315211,China;State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering,Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute,Nanjing 210098,China;Zhejiang Innovation Center&Ningbo Universities Innovation Center for Land and Marine Spatial Utilization and Governance Research,Ningbo 315211,China)

机构地区：[1]宁波大学地理与空间信息技术系,浙江宁波315211 [2]南京水利科学研究院水灾害防御全国重点实验室,江苏南京210098 [3]浙江省协同创新中心&宁波市高等学校协同创新中心“陆海国土空间利用与治理”,浙江宁波315211

出　　处：《水文》2024年第6期68-75,共8页Journal of China Hydrology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(42001025);水灾害防御全国重点实验室“一带一路”水与可持续发展科技基金项目(2021491211);宁波市自然科学基金项目(2023J133)。

摘　　要：基于1971—2018年浙江省62个气象站点降水和台风路径数据,识别台风降水场次与强度。采用基于Hill估计的分位数图法(Q-Q图)的超门限阈值模型法(POT法),获取合适的台风暴雨事件样本。利用广义帕累托分布(GPD分布)分别开展最大1、2、3d台风暴雨频率特征分析,揭示台风暴雨强度-历时-频率关系。总体上,浙江省年均台风发生频次与台风降水量指标均呈现由东南向西部递减的空间分布格局;通过Kolmogorov-Smirnov(K-S)检验、理论与经验频率曲线的拟合程度可以看出,GPD分布能够很好地拟合浙江省极端台风降水的频率特征;不同重现期条件下的最大1、2和3d台风暴雨量也呈现由东部沿海向西部内陆递减的空间分布格局。Based on the daily precipitation data in 62 meteorological stations and typhoon track data in Zhejiang Province from 1971 to 2018,the frequency and intensity of typhoon rainstorm were identified.The rational typhoon rainstorm samples for frequency fitting were extracted by a Peaks-Over-Threshold(POT)method based on Quantile-Graph(Hill graph)method.Then,the Generalized Pareto Distribution(GPD)was adopted to fit the samples of maximum 1-d,2-d and 3-d typhoon rainstorm to reveal the intensity-duration-frequency relationships.Generally,indexes of average annual typhoon frequency and total typhoon precipitation decreased from the southeast to the west of Zhejiang Province.The results of Kolmogorov-Smirnov(K-S)test and the fitting of theoretical-empirical curves certified the well-fitting of GPD on extreme typhoon rainstorm samples and well estimation the frequencies of extreme typhoon rainstorm.The maximum 1-day,2-day and 3-day typhoon rainstorm in different return-periods also showed a decreasing pattern from the eastern coast to the western inland of Zhejiang Province.

关 键 词：台风暴雨 强度-历时-频率关系 超门限阈值法 Hill估计 广义帕累托分布 

分 类 号：P339[天文地球—水文科学] P42[水利工程—水文学及水资源]