长江流域气象干旱时空演变趋势研究  

Research on Spatio-temporal Trends of Meteorological Drought in the Yangtze River Basin

作　　者：胡姗姗 罗定 杨肖丽[2] 史利洁 HU Shanshan;LUO Ding;YANG Xiaoli;SHI Lijie(College of Hydraulic Science and Engineering,Yangzhou University,Yangzhou 225009,China;College of Hydrology and Water Resources,Hohai University,Nanjing 210024,China)

机构地区：[1]扬州大学水利科学与工程学院,江苏扬州225009 [2]河海大学水文水资源学院,江苏南京210024

出　　处：《水文》2024年第6期76-84,共9页Journal of China Hydrology

基　　金：扬州市“绿扬金凤计划”(137013033);江苏省双创博士(337090316)。

摘　　要：长江流域是中国主要的农业生产基地和经济区之一,研究流域内气象干旱时空演变特征可为应对极端干旱气候事件提供科学支撑。基于CN05.1和NEX-GDDP-CMIP6数据集,在评估模拟降水精度的基础上计算1、3、12个月尺度的标准化降水指标(SPI),分析长江流域气象干旱的时空特征及SSP2-4.5情景下的演变趋势。结果表明:(1)NEX-GDDP-CMIP6能够合理再现降水空间分布格局及季节变化特征,相关性高;(2)不同时间尺度的平均干旱历时和平均干旱烈度空间分布相似,长江上游的区域差异性高于下游;(3)与过去相比,未来长江流域干旱频次普遍减少,长江上游以及中游的洞庭湖和汉江部分地区平均干旱历时变短、烈度减少,长历时高烈度集中在中下游。The Yangtze River Basin is one of the major agricultural production bases and economic zones in China.The study of the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of meteorological drought in the basin can provide scientific support for coping with extreme drought climate events.Using CN05.1 and NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 datasets,the standardized precipitation index(SPI)at scales of 1,3,and 12 months was calculated after evaluating the accuracy of simulated precipitation.The spatio-temporal characteristics of meteorological drought in the Yangtze Basin were analyzed,as well as the evolution trend under the SSP2-4.5 scenario.The main results obtained are as follows:(1)NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 can reasonably reproduce the spatial distribution pattern and seasonal variation characteristics of precipitation with high correlation;(2)The spatial distribution of average drought duration and intensity at different time scales is similar,and the regional differences in the upstream area of the Yangtze River are higher than those in the downstream;(3)Compared with the past,the frequency of drought in the Yangtze Basin will generally decrease in the future,and the average drought duration and intensity will decrease in some areas such as upper reaches and the Dongting Lake Basin and Han River Basin.Long-duration and high-intensity droughts are mainly concentrated in the middle and lower reaches.

关 键 词：气象干旱 SPI 游程理论 时空演变 长江流域 

分 类 号：TV11[水利工程—水文学及水资源] P33[天文地球—水文科学]