2024年美国大选及其对美内政外交的影响  

The 2024 U.S.Presidential Election and Its Impact on America's Domestic and Foreign Affairs

作　　者：无 张国庆[2] 罗振兴[1] 俞凤 魏南枝[1] 刘得手[1] 杨楠 

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院美国研究所专论写作组 [2]中国社会科学院美国研究所

出　　处：《当代美国评论》2024年第4期1-40,124-126,共43页Contemporary American Review

摘　　要：在2024年美国大选中,特朗普赢得了压倒性胜利,聚焦国内经济和非法移民等接地气的热点话题给他带来了丰厚的回报;而民主党人则输在了高高在上、忽略选民切身感受的问题上。特朗普将会带着宏大的改革计划开始其第二任期,从其表态来看,特朗普在国内政治议题上将围绕打击“深层政府”、提升总统权限、推动社会政策明显右转和报复对手等几个方面展开工作。在特朗普就职后的“政治蜜月期”中,美国宪政体制将面临考验,两党斗争会更为激烈,政治暴力倾向将会加剧。在美国经济领域,特朗普第二任期的议程有五大支柱,即削减规章、减税、确保公平贸易协定、开发可靠且丰富的低成本能源和倡导创新,其本质是以“美国优先”为目标,倡导经济民粹主义和经济民族主义政策主张。受美国国内政治、经济约束和国际环境制约,特朗普的经济议程能否顺利实施尚难定论。预计减税、促进公平贸易和管控移民等将是特朗普第二任期重点推进的经济政策,阻力较小的能源和创新等政策可能会优先实施,而削减规章的落实则面临较大不确定性。在社会文化领域,共和党在2024年大选中取得的胜利折射出美国选民基础的显著变化。特朗普在拉美裔和年轻选民群体中支持率上升,这反映了美国少数族裔群体内部的次级分化和社会上性别对立问题的加剧,意味着保守主义的复兴及其对两党选民基本盘带来了冲击。在此背景下,特朗普在第二任内将坚定推行保守的社会政策,回归传统的文化路线。然而,受制于复杂的政治环境,其政策前景存在较大不确定性,虽有机会有效遏止“觉醒文化”的蔓延,但也可能因实施不当而导致共和党在下一个选举周期中遭到选民背弃。在外交领域,特朗普在第二任期内将领导一支对其更加忠诚的外交安全团队,大力推行“美国优先”外�In the 2024 U.S.presidential election,Republican candidate Donald Trump won a landslide victory by focusing on down-to-earth issues such as economy and illegal immigration,while the Democrats lost the election for failing to address voters’real concerns.Trump is expected to begin his second term with an ambitious reform agenda.Based on his campaign speches,his approach to domestic issues will center on destroying the"deep state",expanding his powers as president,moving American society further to the right,and seeking retribution against his political foes.During Trump's"honeymoon"after inauguration,the U.S..constitutional system will be tested,with intensified partisan struggles and a rising tendency toward political violence.In the economic realm,Trump's second term agenda will be based on five key pillars,i.e.,deregulation,tax cuts,ensuring fair trade agreements,developing reliable and abundant low-cost energy,and promoting innovation.The essence of these policies is an"America First"approach,advocating for economic populism and economic nationalism.Given the constraints of domestic politics,economic realities,and the international environment,it remains uncertain whether Trump's economic agenda will be successfully implemented.Tax cuts,promoting fair trade,and controlling immigration are expected to be key economic policies that Trump will prioritize during his second tem.Policies related to energy and innovation may be implemented first since there will be fewer obstacles,while the policy of deregulation faces greater uncertainty.In the social and cultural realm,the GOP's victory in the 2024 election reflects a significant shift in the U.S.electorate.Trump's increased support among Latino and younger voters reveals a deepening fragmentation within America's racial and ethnic minority groups and a growing social divide on gender issues.This signals a resurgence of conservatism,which has disrupted both parties'voter base.Against this backdrop,Trump is expected to double down on a conservative social policy i

关 键 词：2024年美国大选 美国政治 美国经济 美国社会文化 美国外交 中美关系 

分 类 号：D871.2[政治法律—政治学] D771.2[政治法律—外交学]