基于CRITIC-TOPSIS-灰色关联的危险货物在途运输风险评估  

Risk assessment of dangerous goods in-transit based on CRITIC-TOPSIS-grey correlation analysis

作　　者：刘雅文 沈小燕[1] 韩小强 于倩倩 吴加宝 LIU Yawen;SHEN Xiaoyan;HAN Xiaoqiang;YU Qianqian;WU Jiabao(School of Automobile,Chang’an University,Xi’an Shaanxi 710064,China;School of Civil Engineering,Chang’an University,Xi’an Shaanxi 710064,China;Shandong Chambroad Logistics Co.,Ltd.,Binzhou Shandong 256500,China)

机构地区：[1]长安大学汽车学院,陕西西安710064 [2]长安大学建筑工程学院,陕西西安710064 [3]山东京博物流股份有限公司,山东滨州256500

出　　处：《中国安全生产科学技术》2024年第12期159-165,共7页Journal of Safety Science and Technology

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2019YFE0108000);陕西省交通运输厅2020年度交通科研项目(20-19R)。

摘　　要：为定量评估危险货物运输风险以及运输过程中车辆预警与运输风险之间的内在联系,以某企业116万余条危货车多源违规预警数据为研究对象,选取7类预警指标,采用CRITIC-TOPSIS方法对危险货物在途运输风险定量分析,结合灰色关联分析方法横向分析预警子序列与预警频次母序列的关联程度。研究结果表明:各预警指标对危险货物运输风险影响程度均较大,其中打哈欠预警和急加速预警权重较大,分别为0.208,0.205。此外,车道偏离、前车碰撞对预警总频次影响较大,从而影响运输风险,而紧急制动影响最小。研究结果可为危险货物运输企业关注重点预警指标进而采取针对性安全教育和驾驶技能培训提供参考。In order to quantitatively evaluate the risk of dangerous goods transportation and explore the internal relationship between the vehicle warning and transportation risk during the transportation process,more than 1.16 million multi-source violation warning data of dangerous goods trucks of an enterprise were taken as the research object,and 7 types of warning indexes were selected.The risk of dangerous goods in-transit was quantitatively analyzed by using the CRITIC-TOPSIS method,and the correlation degree between warning sub-sequence and warning frequency parent sequence was transversely analyzed combining with the grey correlation analysis method.The results show that all the warning indexes have great impact on the risk of dangerous goods transportation,and the weights of yawning warning and rapid acceleration warning is relatively high,at 0.208 and 0.205,respectively.In addition,the lane departure and front-vehicle collision have a significant impact on the total warning frequency,thus affecting the transportation risk,while the emergency braking has the least impact.The research results can provide reference for the dangerous goods transportation enterprises to focus on the key warning indexes and then adopt targeted safety education and driving skills training.

关 键 词：危险货物运输 风险评估 CRITIC TOPSIS 灰色关联分析 

分 类 号：X951[环境科学与工程—安全科学]