2013—2022年南宁市江南区流感流行特征与趋势分析  

Analysis of influenza epidemic characteristics and trends in Jiangnan District,Nanning City from 2013 to 2022

作　　者：陆桂梅 黄成伟 梁春香 LU Guimei;HUANG Chengwei;LIANG Chunxiang(Disease Control Department,Jiangnan District Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Nanning 530031,Guangxi,China;Infectious Disease Control Department,Nanning Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Nanning 530023,Guangxi,China;Public Health Depatrment,Qingxiu District Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Nanning 530029,Guangxi,China)

机构地区：[1]广西南宁市江南区疾病预防控制中心疾病控制科,广西南宁530031 [2]广西南宁市疾病预防控制中心传染病防制科,广西南宁530023 [3]广西南宁市青秀区疾病预防控制中心公共卫生科,广西南宁530029

出　　处：《右江医学》2024年第11期1020-1025,共6页Chinese Youjiang Medical Journal

摘　　要：目的分析2013—2022年南宁市江南区流感的流行特征及变化趋势,为今后制定预防措施及精准防控提供依据。方法采用描述性流行病学方法,分析江南区流感流行特征,应用Joinpoint回归模型分析其变化趋势。结果2013—2022年南宁市江南区总报告流感病例3010例,年平均发病率为61.94/10万,不同年份发病数差异有统计学意义(χ^(2)=3463.27,P<0.01),Joinpoint回归模型分析发病率呈总体上升趋势。发病具有明显的季节性趋势,发病高峰集中在每年秋冬季和夏季,不同月份发病率间差异有统计学意义(χ^(2)=3213.33,P<0.01)。男女发病比例为1.32∶1,Joinpoint回归模型分析男女发病率均呈上升趋势与总体发病率趋势一致;<18岁发病数2234例,≥18岁发病数776例,不同年龄段发病数构成比差异有统计学意义(χ^(2)=213.05,P<0.01)。结论2013—2022年南宁市江南区流感发病趋势上升,发病主要在18岁以下人群,防控工作应特别聚焦于学校等关键场所,着手构建一个高效的预警和防控体系,以实现对流感疫情的早期识别和及时响应。Objective To analyze the epidemic characteristics and trends of influenza in Jiangnan District,Nanning City from 2013 to 2022,so as to provide a basis for the formulation of preventive measures and precise control in the future.Methods Descriptive epidemiological method was used to analyze the characteristics of influenza epidemic in Jiangnan District,and Joinpoint regression model was applied to analyze its trends.Results A total of 3010 influenza cases were reported in Jiangnan District,Nanning City from 2013 to 2022,with an average annual incidence rate of 61.94 per 100000.There was statistically significant difference in the number of cases across different years(χ^(2)=3463.27,P<0.01).Joinpoint regression model analysis showed an overall upward trend in the incidence rate.The onset of the disease had a distinct seasonal trend,with peaks concentrated in the autumn,winter and summer of each year,and there was statistically significant difference in the incidence rate between different months(χ^(2)=3213.33,P<0.01).Male to female incidence ratio was 1.32∶1,and the Joinpoint regression model analysis showed that the incidence rates for both genders were on an upward trend,which was consistent with overall incidence rate trend.There were 2234 cases in individuals under 18 years old and 776 cases in those 18 years old and older,and difference in the proportion of cases across different age groups was statistically significant(χ^(2)=213.05,P<0.01).Conclusion The trend of influenza incidence in Jiangnan District,Nanning City from 2013 to 2022 is rising,with the main occurrence in the population under 18 years old.Control efforts should focus particularly on key places such as schools,and work should be carried out to build an efficient early warning and prevention system to achieve early identification and timely response to influenza outbreaks.

关 键 词：流感 流行特征 Joinpoint分析 

分 类 号：R183.3[医药卫生—流行病学]