2000-2030年杭州市土地利用变化对碳储量及其组分的影响  

Impact of LUCC on Carbon Storage and Its Components in Hangzhou from 2000 to 2030

作　　者：朱华 潘奕好 陈怡彤 ZHU Hua;PAN Yihao;CHEN Yitong(School of Geomatics and Municipal Engineering,Zhejiang University of Water Resources and Electric Power,Hangzhou 310018,China;Key Laboratory of Poyang Lake Wetland and Watershed Research of Ministry of Education,Jiangxi Normal University,Nanchang 330022,China)

机构地区：[1]浙江水利水电学院测绘与市政工程学院,浙江杭州310018 [2]江西师范大学鄱阳湖湿地与流域研究教育部重点实验室,江西南昌330022

出　　处：《环境科学与技术》2024年第11期22-34,共13页Environmental Science & Technology

基　　金：浙江省自然科学基金联合基金项目(LZJWY23E090004);国家级大学生创新创业训练计划项目(202411481021)。

摘　　要：陆地生态系统能够吸收和储存大量碳,在缓解温室效应方面发挥着重要作用。然而,城镇化进程的加速导致土地利用方式的多样化转变,对区域碳汇功能产生了显著影响,因此理解土地利用变化与碳储量之间的关系,对于制定气候变化缓解策略具有重要意义。该研究通过耦合PLUS-InVEST模型,探究了土地利用变化对2000-2030年杭州市生态系统碳储量及其组分的影响。结果表明:(1)2000-2020年杭州市土地利用类型以林地和耕地为主,呈现耕地、林地和水体减少,草地和建设用地扩张的趋势。土地利用类型转变以耕地转为建设用地为主,转移面积达642.59 km^(2)。(2)2000年、2010年和2020年杭州市碳储量分别为2.74×10^(8)t、2.73×10^(8)t和2.72×10^(8)t。在自然发展、耕地保护和生态保护3种情景下,预计到2030年,杭州市的碳储量相较于2020年将分别减少1.14×10^(6)t、7.90×10^(5)t和5.28×10^(5)t。(3)土壤碳储量对总碳储量变化的影响最大,其变化占总碳储量变化比例最高可达64.39%。2000-2020年,耕地转为建设用地对土壤碳储量及总碳储量变化的负向作用最显著,林地的转出对总碳储量及土壤碳储量变化均具有负向影响。而耕地转为林地、水体转为耕地对总碳储量及土壤碳储量变化具有正向效应。研究结果可为双碳目标下杭州市土地利用可持续管理提供科学依据。Terrestrial ecosystems can absorb and store large amounts of carbon,playing an important role in mitigating greenhouse effect.However,the accelerated urbanization process has led to a diversified transformation in land use patterns,which has a significant impact on regional carbon sink function.Therefore,understanding the relationship between land use change(LUCC)and carbon storage is of great significance for formulating climate change mitigation strategies.The coupled PLUS-InVEST model was used to investigate the impact of LUCC on carbon storage and its components in Hangzhou from 2000 to 2030.The results show that from 2000 to 2020,the main types of land use were forestland and cultivated land,showing a trend of decrease in cultivated land,forestland,and water bodies,and an expansion of grassland and construction land.The primary shift in land use was the conversion of farmland into construction land,with a total converted area of 642.59 km2.In 2000,2010,and 2020,the carbon storage was 2.74×10^(8)t,2.73×10^(8)t,and 2.72×10^(8)t respectively.Under three scenari⁃os of natural development,cultivated land protection,and ecological protection,it is projected that by 2030,the carbon storage will decrease by 1.14×10^(6) t,7.90×10^(5) t,and 5.28×10^(5) t respectively compared to 2020.The soil carbon storage exerted the most significant influence on the total carbon storage change,accounting for the largest proportion of 64.39%in the total car⁃bon storage variation.From 2000 to 2020,the transition from farmland to construction land exerted the most significant nega⁃tive influence on the changes in soil and total carbon storage.Similarly,the conversion of forestland had a negative impact on the changes in both total and soil carbon storage.However,the transformation of cultivated land into forestland and the conversion of water bodies into cultivated land had positive impacts on the change of both total and soil carbon storage.The re⁃sults can provide a scientific basis for the sustainable management of la

关 键 词：土地利用变化 碳储量 情景预测 贡献率 杭州市 

分 类 号：X321[环境科学与工程—环境工程]