京津冀全要素生产率的实证研究:京津冀协同发展的成效和潜力  

Empirical Study on Total Factor Productivity in the Beijing-Tianjin Hebei Region: Potentials and Outcomes

作　　者：武义青[1] 马红创 姚连宵 WU Yiqing;MA Hongchuang;YAO Lianxiao(Hebei Collaborative Innovation Center for BTH Coordinated Development,Hebei University of Economics and Business,Shijiazhuang,Hebei 050061,China;Institute of Economics,Hebei University of Economics and Business,Shijiazhuang,Hebei 050061,China;College of Management and Economics,Tianjin University,Tianjin 300072,China)

机构地区：[1]河北经贸大学京津冀协同发展河北省协同创新中心,河北石家庄050061 [2]河北经贸大学经济研究所,河北石家庄050061 [3]天津大学管理与经济学部,天津300072

出　　处：《河北工业大学学报（社会科学版）》2024年第4期1-9,共9页Journal of Hebei University of Technology：Social Sciences Edition

基　　金：2024年度河北省科学技术协会重大资助课题(06-24-001-005)。

摘　　要：基于主动性决策理论的势分析方法导出了全要素生产率的测定模型,对1991—2022年京津冀地区(整体)和京津冀三地及2012—2022年京津冀城市群13个城市的全要素生产率进行了测定和分析。结果表明:考察期内,京津冀地区整体和三省市及其城市群的全要素生产率均呈上升趋势,特别是京津冀协同发展以来,京津冀地区整体和三省市及其城市群全要素生产率对经济增长的贡献份额明显提高。总结发现:京津冀地区全要素生产率低于长三角和珠三角地区,京津冀三省市全要素生产率的短板在河北,而河北的短板在冀西北和冀中南地区,京津冀城市群内部全要素生产率的差距有所扩大;京津冀地区资本产出率较低并下降制约了京津冀全要素生产率的提高,而京津冀地区就业人员在2013年达到峰值后持续下降,且资本增长回落较快,导致京津冀地区经济增长放缓(由1992—2014年的10.85%降至2014—2022年的5.6%)。最后,从创新驱动区域产业协同、促进劳动力资源的合理流动和加强资本高效利用三个方面对提升京津冀地区全要素生产率提出政策建议。Using the potential analysis based on proactive decision-making theory,this study has derived a model for measuring total factor productivity in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei(BTH hereafter)region.The model measures and analyzes total factor productivity from 1991 to 2022 for the entire BTH region,the three provinces and cities within the region,and from 2012 to 2022 for the 13 cities in the BTH urban agglomeration.Results indicate an upward trend in total factor productivity in the whole region,in the three provinces and cities,and in their urban agglomeration during the study period.Notably,since the coordinated development of the BTH region,the contribution of total factor productivity to economic growth in these areas has significantly increased.Key findings reveal that the total factor productivity in the BTH region remains lower than that of the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta regions.Within the BTH region,total factor productivity is the weakest in Hebei Province,particularly in northwestern and south-central Hebei.Additionally,disparities in total factor productivity within the BTH urban agglomeration have widened.Low and declining capital output ratios have limited improvements in total factor productivity,while employment in the BTH region has steadily declined since its peak in 2013,and capital growth has slowed rapidly.Together,these factors have contributed to a deceleration in economic growth in the BTH region,from 10.85%during 1992-2014 to 5.6%during 2014-2022.This study concludes with policy recommendations for improving total factor productivity in the BTH region,focusing on innovation-driven regional industrial collaboration,rational allocation of labor resources,and enhancing capital efficiency.

关 键 词：京津冀 全要素生产率 势分析方法 竞争力 

分 类 号：A811[哲学宗教—马克思主义哲学]