基于云模型-改进证据理论的沥青路面预防性养护评价  

Evaluation of preventive maintenance for asphalt pavement utilizing the cloud model and enhanced evidence theory

作　　者：李海莲[1] 江晶晶 李清华 刘忠磊 贾卫东 高雅丽 张磊[1] LI Hai-lian;JIANG Jing-jing;LI Qing-hua;LIU Zhong-lei;JIA Wei-dong;GAO Ya-li;ZHANG Lei(School of Civil Engineering,Lanzhou Jiaotong University,Lanzhou 730070,China;China First Highway Engineering Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 100024,China;China Railway Fourteen Bureau Group Co.,Ltd.,Jinan 250101,China)

机构地区：[1]兰州交通大学土木工程学院,兰州730070 [2]中交一公局集团有限公司,北京100024 [3]中铁十四局集团有限公司,济南250101

出　　处：《兰州大学学报（自然科学版）》2024年第6期773-781,共9页Journal of Lanzhou University(Natural Sciences)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51868042);甘肃省自然科学基金项目(20JR10RA229,22JR5RA334);甘肃省高等学校创新基金项目(2021A-048);兰州交通大学“百名青年优秀人才培养计划”基金项目(2018103)。

摘　　要：为解决沥青路面预防性养护评价中存在的模糊性、随机性与不确定性问题,基于云模型与改进证据理论的沥青路面预防性养护评价方法,建立包含路面结构、路面性能、路面使用、气候条件和预防性养护效益的沥青路面预防性养护评价指标体系.借助云模型确定各评价指标在基准云中的信任度,进而转化为证据理论中的基本概率分配.针对传统证据理论中强冲突证据融合后可能与事实相悖的问题,用Jousselme证据距离识别冲突证据,用修正系数对冲突证据进行修正.借鉴博弈论思想将评价指标的主、客观权重进行博弈组合,用改进后的博弈论组合计算最优主、客观权重系数,得到综合权重.用修正后的证据和各个证据的博弈组合权重进行加权运算,得到评价结果.用所提出的模型对不同等级的6条路段沥青路面进行预防性养护评价.结果表明,该方法能够综合考虑沥青路面预防性养护评价中的特性问题,评价结果与实际情况相符.与传统模糊综合评价以及传统证据理论的评价结果进行对比,证明该方法的评价结果是科学、有效且合理的.In light of the inherent ambiguity,stochastic nature and uncertainties characterizing the evaluation process of preventive maintenance,we introduced a novel methodology grounded in the cloud model coupled with an enhanced evidence theory.A comprehensive evaluation metric system was delineated,encompassing five critical dimensions:structural integrity of the pavement,functional performance,utilization patterns,prevailing climatic conditions,and the resultant benefits derived from preventive maintenance.Leveraging the cloud model,the credibility of each evaluative metric within the reference cloud was ascertained,subsequently being translated into the basic probability assignment inherent in the evidence theory.Addressing a prevalent limitation in the conventional evidence theory,where integrating potent conflicting evidence might yield incongruent outcomes,the Jousselme evidence distance was employed to discern conflicting evidence,followed by the application of a rectification coefficient for adjustments.Incorporating insights from the game theory,a synergistic amalgamation of subjective and objective weights pertaining to the evaluation metrics was achieved.This refined game-theoretical approach could facilitate the computation of optimal weight coefficients,yielding an aggregate weightage.The rectified evidence,in conjunction with the game-theoretical weightage of each evidence segment,underwent a weighted computation to derive the final evaluative outcome.Empirical application of the proposed model on six distinct grades of asphalt pavement sections underscored its efficacy in preventive maintenance evaluation.The outcomes not only resonated with empirical observations but also,when juxtaposed against traditional fuzzy comprehensive evaluations and conventional evidence theory assessments,showcased its superior scientific rigor,effectiveness,and logical coherence.

关 键 词：沥青路面 预防性养护 养护决策 博弈论 云模型 证据理论 

分 类 号：U416.217[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程]