RCEP生效对中国经济贸易及农产品的影响——基于GTAP模型的一般均衡分析  

The Impact of RCEP Effectiveness on China’s Economy,Trade,and Agricultural Products——General Equilibrium Analysis Based on GTAP Model

作　　者：钟税针 胡忆 朱伙军 刘德华 Zhong Shuizhen;Hu Yi;Zhu Huojun;Liu Dehua(School of Economics and Management,Jiangxi University of Engineering,Xinyu,Jiangxi 338029)

机构地区：[1]江西工程学院经济管理学院,江西新余338029

出　　处：《中国商论》2024年第24期1-5,共5页China Journal of Commerce

基　　金：江西工程学院社会科学研究项目“RECP成员国贸易便利化对中国劳动力市场的影响——基于GTAP模型的模拟”(2023-JGSK-03);江西工程学院教学改革研究项目“本科合格评估背景下地方应用型高校人才培养体系建设研究——以江西工程学院为例”(2024-JGJG-66);江西工程学院教学改革研究项目“互联网背景下《西方经济学》课程的教学模式探索与研究”(2024-JGJG-36)。

摘　　要：由中国、日本、韩国、澳大利亚、新西兰及东盟10国在内的15个成员国共同推动的RCEP于2023年6月2日全面生效,RCEP的生效实施有利于打造区域经贸合作新增长点,开启亚太区域经济一体化发展新阶段。作为全球最具发展潜力的自由贸易区,RECP成员国90%以上的货物贸易最终将实现零关税,最终实现零关税的农产品总体比例也将达到90%以上,RCEP成员国的贸易自由化与便利化将为中国的经济贸易及农产品发展带来重大机遇。为了验证RCEP生效对中国经济贸易及农产品的经济影响,本文利用GTAP10模型进行模拟分析,结果显示:RCEP生效促进了中国宏观经济、生产要素市场价格、进出口商品数量、农产品市场价格、农产品贸易规模和部分农产品产出水平的提升。本文研究结果能够为中国贸易政策和产业政策的调整提供实证依据。The RCEP,jointly promoted by 15 member countries including China,Japan,South Korea,Australia,New Zealand,and 10 ASEAN countries,came into full effect on June 2,2023.The implementation of RCEP is conducive to creating new growth points for regional economic and trade cooperation and opening up a new stage of economic integration and development in the Asia Pacific region.As the world’s most promising free trade area,RECP member countries have over 90%of goods trade to eventually achieve zero tariffs,and the overall proportion of agricultural products to ultimately achieve zero tariffs will also exceed 90%.The trade liberalization and facilitation of RCEP member countries will bring significant opportunities to China’s economic trade and agricultural product development.To verify the economic impact of RCEP on China’s economy,trade,and agricultural products,this paper conducts simulation analysis using the GTAP10 model.The results show that RCEP implementation promotes the improvement of China’s Macro-economy,production factor market prices,import and export commodity quantities,agricultural product market prices,agricultural product trade scale,and the output level of some agricultural products.The research results can provide empirical evidence for the adjustment of China’s trade and industrial policies.

关 键 词：RCEP 货物贸易 农产品 GTAP10 贸易政策 产业政策 

分 类 号：F752.7[经济管理—国际贸易]