传统能源和新能源协调发展的演进策略研究:基于“政策-市场-创新行为”的驱动机制  

The Evolutionary Strategy of Harmonious Development of Traditional and New Energy Sources: A Study Based on the Driving Mechanism of Policy, Market, Innovation and Behavior

作　　者：商波 黄涛珍[2] SHANG Bo;HUANG Taozhen(School of Business,Changzhou University,Changzhou 213159,China;School of Public Administration,Hohai University,Nanjing 211100,China)

机构地区：[1]常州大学商学院,江苏常州213159 [2]河海大学公共管理学院,江苏南京211100

出　　处：《河海大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》2024年第6期137-150,共14页Journal of Hohai University：Philosophy and Social Sciences

基　　金：国家社会科学基金青年项目(22CJY026)。

摘　　要：为提高能源绿色发展质量,我国政府提出能源转型各阶段不同能源之间的协调关系,鼓励传统煤电企业与新能源企业开展实质性联营。然而,如何通过有效途径开展联营成为能源协调发展的关键。从“政策市场创新行为”系统框架入手,基于CCER和绿证的碳耦合机制,构建传统煤电能源企业参与新能源联营投资的演化博弈模型,用以探究传统能源和新能源的协调发展过程。通过稳定性检验,从政策、市场、创新、成本等角度分析关键因素对均衡策略行为的影响,研究认为:较高的补贴扣除、较低的CCER碳抵销比例和转让绿证的高机会成本不利于碳耦合机制的形成,绿证的碳抵销功能无法摆脱“补贴困境”,能源主体的趋利行为阻碍了碳耦合机制在能源协调发展的桥梁作用;收紧初始碳配额分配有利于推动碳耦合机制的发展,并逐步代替碳市场原有的强制性惩罚机制;传统能源企业投入的一次性发电设备成本决定其是否参与新能源联营投资,但传统能源企业投入设备的低碳创新成本不是影响双方决策行为的关键因素。研究以期为传统煤电与新能源、碳市场与绿证市场的耦合发展提供思路。To improve the quality of green energy development,the Chinese government puts forward the coordination relationship among different energy sources at various stages of energy transformation,and encourages the traditional coal power enterprises and new energy enterprises to carry out substantive joint operation.However,how to carry out joint operation through effective ways has become the key to the coordinated development of energy sources.To explore the coordinated development process of traditional and new energy,this study constructs an evolutionary game model for traditional energy enterprises to participate in new energy joint investment based on the carbon coupling mechanism of CCER and green certificate from the system framework of policy,market,innovation and behavior.Through stability test,this study analyzes the influence of key factors on equilibrium strategy behavior from the perspectives of policy,market,innovation and cost.The main conclusions show that higher subsidy deduction,lower CCER carbon offset ratio and higher opportunity cost of green certificate are not conducive to the formation of carbon coupling mechanism.The carbon offsetting function of green certificate cannot get rid of the“subsidy dilemma”,and the profit-seeking behavior of energy agents hinder the bridge role of carbon coupling mechanism in the coordinated energy development.The tightening of carbon quota allocation is conducive to promoting the development of carbon coupling mechanism,which replaces the original mandatory penalty mechanism of carbon market gradually.The one-time power generation equipment cost invested by traditional energy enterprises determines whether they participate in new energy joint investment.However,the low carbon innovation cost of input equipment of traditional energy enterprises is not the key factor affecting the decision-making behavior of both sides.This study aims to provide inspiring ideas for the coupling development of traditional coal power and new energy sources,carbon and green certif

关 键 词：绿色发展 传统能源 新能源 协调发展 演化博弈 驱动机制 

分 类 号：F283[经济管理—国民经济]