湖北省居民储蓄和可支配收入与经济发展关系的实证分析——基于向量自回归模型  

Empirical Analysis of the Relationship Between Household Savings and Disposable Income and Economic Development in Hubei Province—Based on the VAR model

作　　者：罗俊茹 李文芳 LUO Junru;LI Wenfang(School of Economics and Management,Hubei Univ.of Tech.,Wuhan 430000,China)

机构地区：[1]湖北工业大学经济与管理学院,湖北武汉430068

出　　处：《湖北工业大学学报》2024年第6期57-61,73,共6页Journal of Hubei University of Technology

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究一般项目(规划基金项目)(17YJA790049)。

摘　　要：使用湖北省2001—2021年的生产总值、居民储蓄额、居民可支配收入、消费者物价指数作为数据样本,构建向量自回归(VAR)金融计量模型来探讨湖北省居民储蓄与可支配收入对于经济发展的影响。结果显示,居民储蓄与消费者物价指数之间存在因果关系,但是居民储蓄对于湖北省地区生产总值影响并不显著。因此建议:后疫情时代,一方面政府部门应该合理保障居民收入,提升居民消费信心,刺激消费,谨防通缩风险,使经济发展水平总体保持平稳;另一方面金融机构应该提升储蓄投资的转化效率,为实体经济注入活水,从而加速湖北省经济重振。This paper uses the GDP,household savings,disposable income and consumer price index of Hubei Province from 2001 to 2021 as data samples,and constructs a VAR financial measurement model to explore the impact of household savings and disposable income on economic development in Hubei Province.The results show that there is a causal relationship between household savings and consumer price index,but household savings has no significant effect on the GDP of Hubei Province.Therefore,in the post epidemic era,on the one hand,government departments should reasonably guarantee residents’income,enhance residents’consumption confidence and stimulate consumption,beware of deflation risks,and keep the overall level of economic development stable.On the other hand,financial institutions should improve the conversion efficiency of savings and investment,inject fresh water into the real economy,and thus accelerate the economic revitalization of Hubei Province.

关 键 词：居民储蓄 可支配收入 区域经济 向量自回归模型 

分 类 号：F83[经济管理—金融学]