基于多场景构建的城市雨涝预测预警模型设计及应用  

Design and Application of Urban Waterlogging Prediction and Early Warning Model Based on Multiple Scenarios

作　　者：谢飞 XIE Fei

机构地区：[1]深圳市博铭维技术股份有限公司,广东深圳518000

出　　处：《科技创新与应用》2024年第36期32-37,42,共7页Technology Innovation and Application

基　　金：浙江省自然科学基金联合基金重点项目(LZJWZ23E090009)。

摘　　要：为深入探讨城市内涝原因,有效解决内涝问题,实现提前预警,建立系统化防控体系,提出基于多场景构建的城市雨涝预测预警模型,评估排水系统排水能力和内涝风险,提升城市对内涝灾害的应对能力,减少对社会和经济的影响。该文以广东省某城市街道为例,通过排水系统监测体系、雨量实时短期预测模型、地表径流二维模型、管网一维模型、河道一维模型等多模型耦合,基于整体把握,重点防控的原则,对引起内涝问题的因素进行排查,有效评估排水系统的实际运行状态。利用最新的气象数据和雨量监测对降雨量进行短期准确预测,综合地形、土地利用和土壤类型等因素模拟地表产汇流,同时,基于排水系统和河道内水流动态和负荷的监测和模拟,对排水系统的排水能力、响应和溢流风险等进行评估并对易涝区域开展重点排查。该模型的应用能够降低降雨带来的内涝风险,了解降雨后地表水流的行为,优化排水系统的设计和管理,提供准确的内涝预警。并为制定有效的应急措施提供支持,提升城市防洪排涝的能力,帮助减少内涝灾害的社会和经济影响。In order to deeply explore the causes of urban waterlogging,effectively solve the problem of waterlogging,realize early warning in advance,and establish a systematic prevention and control system,an urban rain and waterlogging prediction and early warning model based on multiple scenarios was proposed to evaluate the drainage capacity of drainage system and waterlogging risk,improve the city's response ability to waterlogging disasters,and reduce the impact on society and economy.Taking a street in a city in Guangdong Province as an example,this paper uses the coupling of multiple models such as the drainage system monitoring system,the real-time and short-term rainfall prediction model,the two-dimensional surface runoff model,the one-dimensional pipe network model,and the one-dimensional river channel model,and based on the principles of overall grasp and key prevention and control,the factors causing waterlogging problems are investigated and the actual operating status of the drainage system is effectively evaluated.Use the latest meteorological data and rainfall monitoring to accurately predict rainfall in the short term,and integrate factors such as terrain,land use and soil type to simulate surface runoff.At the same time,based on the monitoring and simulation of water flow dynamics and loads in the drainage system and rivers,the drainage system's drainage capacity,response and overflow risks are evaluated and key investigations are carried out in waterlogging prone areas.The application of this model can reduce the risk of waterlogging caused by rainfall,understand the behavior of surface water flow after rainfall,optimize the design and management of drainage systems,and provide accurate early warning of waterlogging.

关 键 词：内涝防控 在线预测预警 防汛 应急决策 智慧水务 

分 类 号：TU992[建筑科学—市政工程]